Hutton report could force Blair into confidence vote

By ANDY McSMITH


LONDON - By early Thursday British Prime Minister Tony Blair may look like one of those gravity-defying superheroes - "with one bound he was free" - or he may be a damaged leader, limping on without a solid parliamentary base.

At worst, Blair could find himself in the untenable position of having Lord Brian Hutton question his honesty.

The drama will begin at midnight tomorrow, NZ time, out of the public eye, when a squad of messengers arrives simultaneously at six locations, bearing advance copies of Hutton's bulky report.

For some of the people allowed to read these early copies, under tightly regulated conditions, Hutton's words could make the difference between vindication and ruin.

For the small number of Downing Street officials on the approved list, the big question will be what the report says about Blair.

However quickly they read it, they will probably not be quick enough to relay the news to the Prime Minister before his first public appearance of the day.

The debate on the vulnerable Higher Education Bill will kick off in the Commons at 12.30am NZT on Wednesday, with an opening speech by Charles Clarke. Blair will want to be at the side of his Secretary of State for Education as Clarke battles for the last time to convince a rowdy, divided House that variable tuition fees are the right way to fund universities.

After an hour or so, Blair will slip away to his room behind the Speaker's Chair, where his staff will be ready to give him the good or the bad news about the Hutton report.

Meanwhile, the debate in the Commons will plough on, pitching Labour MP against Labour MP. Outside the debating chamber Government whips will be on the prowl, checking the whereabouts of every MP and making last efforts to win over any waverers.

At 7am, after a winding-up speech from the Higher Education minister Alan Johnson, MPs will vote.

The last time a government was defeated in the Commons, over the Maastricht Treaty, the Prime Minister himself - John Major - immediately announced he was calling a vote of confidence the next day.

Blair's position is not as precarious as Major's was then, but he may have no choice but to follow that precedent. If he does not call a confidence vote, Opposition leader Michael Howard may call him a chicken and force one on him.

Howard and a fellow Tory, David Cameron, will be at the Cabinet Office by 6pm, to be locked in a secure room to read the Hutton report. Charles Kennedy and the Liberal Democrat foreign affairs spokesman Menzies Campbell will be locked in another room.

They will emerge a little under six hours later to rush to the Commons for Prime Minister's Questions.

As things are now scheduled, midnight on Wednesday will see mayhem in the Commons, with MPs crowding around the vote office in the lobby to be the first to grab copies of the Hutton report when it is officially published, at exactly the moment when Prime Minister's Questions begins.

The broadcasters will also have to choose which live drama to follow - the exchanges in the Commons, or Hutton's statement in Court 76 of the Royal Courts of Justice nearby.

Howard and Kennedy, meanwhile, will be spoilt for the choice of questions they can fire at Blair. They could concentrate on the Hutton report, which they will have read, or save that battle until later, focusing instead on tuition fees.

Blair will make a statement to the Commons on the report as soon as Hutton has completed his announcement.

If there is a vote of confidence in the Government, it is likely to be on Friday.

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