To estimate the future spread of the disease, Brady and his colleagues took data on mosquito behavior and projections on urbanisation (one type of Aedes mosquito that spreads the disease is especially prevalent in cities) and combined them with three different climate scenarios to model what might happen in 2020, 2050 and 2080. Under all three scenarios the spread of dengue increased.
But how much the world warms has a significant effect on the spread of the disease.
The research, Brady said, "hints at the idea that if we do control emissions better, we could stop or at least limit this kind of spread."
Warming temperatures help expand dengue's range because, in part, as it gets warmer mosquitoes can thrive in more places where they couldn't previously. Warming temperatures also shorten the time it takes a mosquito to become a biting adult and accelerate the time between when a mosquito picks up a disease and is able to pass it on. The study's predictions were lower in some areas, particularly Europe, than previous studies. Those studies estimated widespread transmission of the disease on the Continent, while Brady and his colleagues estimated that its spread in the region would be limited to parts of the Iberian Peninsula and Mediterranean.
Aedes aegypti is particularly concerning, because, while other mosquito species will bite whatever is convenient, Aedes aegypti prefer to bite humans.
Much of the Southeastern United States used to be home to mosquito-borne diseases. Malaria was a threat until the middle of the 20th century, when a mosquito-eradication campaign eliminated the disease. But that campaign relied heavily on liberal application of the insecticide DDT, which had a host of harmful environmental effects.
In 2018, the Florida Department of Health in Miami-Dade County announced at least one locally acquired occurrence of dengue.
There are limits to the study, cautioned Andrew Comrie, a professor in the department of geography and development at the University of Arizona. The paper is a sophisticated use of ecological niche modelling, Comrie said by email, but it does "not deal with species competition, predation, or potential evolutionary adaptation."
While there is a dengue fever vaccine, it is ineffective for most people. Treatment for the disease focuses on ensuring that the patient gets enough fluids, which can be difficult because of severe nausea and vomiting.
"For a healthy individual dengue is an awful experience that you never forget," said Josh Idjadi, an associate professor at Eastern Connecticut University who contracted dengue fever in French Polynesia. "For infants and elderly and the infirm, they're the ones that are going to be at risk."
Written by: Kendra Pierre-Louis and Nadja Popovich
© 2019 THE NEW YORK TIMES