KEY POINTS:
Woe to the republic.
Within a month of Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's 2020 conference issuing its resounding call for an end to the monarchy, a poll has shown a slide in popular support for an Australian head of state.
Unless, of course, the next monarch is to be Prince Charles, in which case the monarchy takes a king hit.
Monarchists have claimed yesterday's Morgan poll - which shows support for a republic has fallen 6 per cent since 2001 to 45 per cent - is further proof the nation does not want change.
Republicans argue that the poll asked only if Australians wanted a republic with an elected President, reopening the split with republicans who want the head of state appointed by Parliament - the same division that sunk the 1999 referendum. "A poll is only as good as the question it asks," said Mike Keating of the Australian Republican Movement.
If nothing else, the latest poll will help Rudd keep the issue well down his list of priorities as his six-month-old Government works on its existing, packed agenda, and prepares for its first Budget next week.
Before the 2020 conference convened to assemble a list of ideas for the new administration, senior Labor figures indicated that while a republic was inevitable, they were in no hurry to push for one.
After the conference thrust the issue to the top of its wish-list, Rudd noted the delegates' resolve to bring a republic into being - but also the practical problems of winning support for constitutional change. "The truth is we're unlikely to achieve a positive outcome on this unless there is a widespread national consensus," he told ABC radio.
Newspoll polling has shown that support for a republic surged from just 21 per cent two decades ago to a peak of 54 per cent in 1997 before sliding back to 45 per cent in January last year.
Yesterday's Morgan poll reported that support for an elected Australian head of state was now at its lowest since 1993. It found that 64 per cent of 14- to 17-year-olds wanted the nation to remain a monarchy, with 23 per cent supporting a republic and 13 per cent undecided.
But it also showed that, overall, republicans continued to hold a slight edge over the 42 per cent of Australians who back the monarchy, and that a large 13 per cent were undecided.
And Morgan found that Prince Charles remains the monarchy's biggest enemy in Australia. If Charles were crowned King, only 32 per cent would want to continue as a constitutional monarchy, it said.
Professor David Flint, head of Australians for a Constitutional Monarchy, said support for a republic had been consistently trending downwards in opinion polls, especially among the young. The poll showed Australians wanted to hold on to their past, not abandon it: "There's a feeling that you just don't cut yourself off."
But Keating said the poll did not reflect the true level of support for a republic because it presented the single option of an elected president. "Many people who were then, and still are avowed republicans, voted no in the 1999 referendum because they didn't agree with the particular model that was put forward."
The republican movement is now urging the Government to divide a vote into two parts; the first, in conjunction with the 2010 election, asking if most Australians want a republic; and the second, after a constitutional conference, to vote on the process of installing a head of state.
