Hold your horses, Abbott tells his MPs, but have they already bolted?

Tony Abbott. Photo / AP

Tony Abbott tried his best yesterday to appease disaffected Coalition backbenchers, as well as ordinary Australians " but more bad polls, on top of Saturday's disastrous Queensland election result, only served to heighten leadership speculation.

In a speech to the National Press Club billed as "make-or-break", the Prime Minister offered policy retreats, sweeteners and promises to consult more. But even as he spoke, his Liberal deputy, Julie Bishop, and the man he deposed as leader, Malcolm Turnbull, were said to be "actively considering their options".

According to a Fairfax-Ipsos poll, Abbott's Coalition trails Labor by 54 per cent to 46 per cent after preferences, while his own approval rating has plummeted to 29 per cent. A Galaxy poll for News Corp on Sunday was even worse for the Government, showing Labor leading by 57 to 43 per cent.

A prospect which seemed inconceivable just a few weeks ago is now hardening by the day: the unseating " for the second time in less than five years " of an elected Australian prime minister. However, Abbott made it clear in his speech " much of which was directly aimed at mutinous Coalition MPs " that he intends to fight to retain power. Recalling the "chaos" of preceding Labor governments, he warned: "The Rudd-Gillard-Rudd years cannot become the new normal, least Australia join the weak government club and become a second-rate country living off its luck."

In key concessions, the Prime Minister dumped his signature paid parental leave policy, flagged a tax cut for small businesses and promised not to change the GST without bipartisan support. Acknowledging that "I probably overdid it on awards" " a reference to his knighting of Prince Philip " he also pledged that all future honours would be decided by the official awards committee.

But for many, the speech came too late. Conservative commentators are baying for blood, and politics-watchers believe it is no longer a question of if, but when, Abbott steps down " or is pushed. Two key dates loom: today, when the Cabinet will hold its first meeting of the year, and a week today, when the Liberal party room meets.

While ministers are putting up a loyal front, backbenchers are reportedly intent on change, particularly after Queensland's stunning rejection of Campbell Newman's Liberal National Party state Government. The most common scenario being touted has Turnbull as leader and Bishop his deputy, with Scott Morrison as Treasurer. Joe Hockey's fate is considered to be irrevocably intertwined with Abbott's.

No one, though, it is said, wants a transition as sudden or brutal as Julia Gillard's knifing of Kevin Rudd in June 2010. Instead, MPs are hoping Abbott may go quietly. Andrew Bolt, the News Corp columnist who until recently was one of Abbott's main media cheerleaders, yesterday listed several examples of political fortunes improving after parties changed their leader " including following Rudd's ousting of Gillard in 2013, which, he said, had "saved a dozen Labor seats".

The Opposition Leader, Bill Shorten, called Abbott's address "a desperate speech from a politically drowning man aimed at pleasing his MPs".