Heave-ho likely for Tung

HONG KONG - Hong Kong's embattled Chief Executive, Tung Chee-hwa, flew to Beijing yesterday refusing to comment on strong rumours he is about to resign and be replaced by a civil service caretaker.

The rumours were reported in some Chinese-language newspapers and the English language daily, the South China Morning Post, and are now widely believed by both Government supporters and opponents.

Tung, 67, told Chinese officials he was stepping down because his health was deteriorating, newspapers said. But some analysts believe Beijing ordered Tung to step down.

The Standard newspaper said Tung handed in his resignation before the Lunar New Year, which started on February 9. It was approved after an emergency meeting of the politburo in Beijing.

So far Beijing has not issued a denial. And Tung's office has further strengthened the rumours by refusing to comment on the matter.

"There's no correction or response from the Beijing Government and there's a very weak response from the Chief Executive's office. This makes many people think this unconfirmed information is right," said Lee Wing-Tat, head of the Democratic Party, the major pro-democracy party in Hong Kong which is usually seen as the administration's chief opposition.

But the Secretary for Justice, Elsie Leung, one of the senior Government officials willing to comment, said it was all speculation.

"These are just rumours. How can you listen to rumours?" she told the South China Morning Post.

The rumours come from Beijing, where the annual meeting of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference is about to begin. It was announced on Monday that Tung has been reappointed a member of the NPCC. He resigned from this body in 1997 to avoid a conflict of interests when he became Hong Kong's Chief Executive, so his re-entry is seen as evidence he will not be Chief Executive for much longer.

It is also expected Tung will be given an NPCC vice-chairman post, the usual reward for senior officials on retirement.

While Tung has long been seen as a lame duck leader, a man whose resignation was demanded by the 500,000 people who took to the streets on July 1, 2003, and who is criticised and derided, no matter what he does, the pressure to have him quit had lessened in the last few months.

Hong Kong has entered a solid recovery phase with property and stock market prices picking up, unemployment levels falling and no re-appearance of Sars, the epidemic that rocked the city psychologically as well as physically and economically.

However, over the past few months Beijing has made it clear they are not happy with their appointee in Hong Kong. Last December, in Macau, during celebrations marking five years since the former Portuguese enclave was handed over to China, President Hu Jintao gave Tung a public dressing-down. Immediately after praising Macau's leader for a successful five years at the helm, Hu turned to Tung and told him to "reflect on his mistakes" and made it clear he needed to do better.

In Chinese society this is as bad as it gets. Being publicly criticised is the worst thing that can happen because the person criticised then has "no face". Tung has never admitted that this was criticism of his leadership but contradicted this position by then spending most of his annual policy address last January listing his mistakes and promising to do better.

Clearly, if the rumours are true, Beijing decided Tung was not capable of doing any better. While they may have made the decision to remove him as long ago as last December, it is no surprise they have waited until now. Nothing happens in greater China until after Lunar New Year, which finished last week.

The man expected to replace Tung, Chief Secretary Donald Tsang, is a career civil servant who has strong civil service backing, something Tung never enjoyed.

As a traditional head of a Chinese family business, Tung's tendency was to micro-manage, concentrating on the detail while rarely getting the big picture right.

Civil servants felt undermined and also feared for their jobs - something likely to happen as the large, expensive administration needed significant pruning.

Tung set up a system of political appointees to enable him to better run the administration. But this simply increased his problems - with many of those appointees, resigning or being forced to resign after public exposure of their mistakes.

Tung Chee-hwa

Position: Hong Kong chief executive
Age: 67
Future prospects: Is reported to have resigned, with chief secretary Donald Tsang to be made acting chief executive. Tung's present term is not supposed to end until mid-2007. Was made a member of the top advisory body to China's Parliament on Monday.
In the past: Tung is a former shipping tycoon. He was handpicked by Beijing to be Hong Kong's first leader after the former British colony returned to Chinese rule in 1997. His tenure has been marked by major policy gaffes, resignations and scandals involving key lieutenants and three economic recessions.

- additional reporting Reuters