Half Britain's livestock could die as foot-and-mouth spreads

LONDON - Britain's foot-and-mouth epidemic could get 10 times worse, with a warning from the British Government's chief scientist that it could claim half the country's livestock.

As the number of confirmed outbreaks in Britain topped 500 and more cases were confirmed in France and Argentina, Professor David King said urgent action was needed to stop the disease spiralling out of control.

Draconian measures have failed to stop foot-and-mouth crossing borders into Ireland, France and the Netherlands.

France's Agriculture Ministry today confirmed that 100 cows and 200 sheep had been slaughtered at the second French farm struck with the disease.

In Argentina, food and animal health inspection agency Senasa said the South American country had 55 confirmed outbreaks of the disease and 36 suspected outbreaks.

Ireland, which has called in the army to help contain the crisis, has begun slaughtering thousands more farm animals.

Japan has extended a ban on imports of animals susceptible to foot-and-mouth to the whole of the European Union. It previously applied only to the four countries affected so far.

But in the Hague, the Dutch Agriculture Minister said exports of meat and dairy products might resume next week from provinces not affected by the three confirmed outbreaks in the Netherlands.

In London, however, leading scientists advising the government issued a dire prediction that the number of affected sites across Britain could rise nearly tenfold to more than 4,000 by June.

The British Government's chief scientist said that in "a worst case scenario", foot-and-mouth disease could result in the loss of half the country's 62 million livestock.

King said animals should be slaughtered more quickly after they were found to have contracted foot-and-mouth.

"If we proceed as we are at the moment, the epidemic is out of control, and in the worst case scenario out of control means that we might even lose 50 per cent of the livestock of Great Britain," King told BBC radio.

Official statistics estimate Britain has 44 million sheep and lambs, 11 million cattle and seven million pigs. About 300,000 cloven-hoofed animals have been slaughtered so far in the month-long outbreak.

"This will be a large epidemic, it will grow fast and it will continue for many months," said Dr Debby Reynolds, a scientist addressing a Ministry of Agriculture briefing.

Much of the country has already been sealed off, tourism is on its knees and there have been widespread calls for a general election widely expected on May 3 to be postponed.

"All the experts advised of the need for further drastic action to bring the disease under control," a ministry note said.

"Otherwise foot-and-mouth will become established in Britain."

In Stockholm, where EU leaders are meeting, British Prime Minister Tony Blair said dealing with Britain's disastrous outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease would be long and hard.

"There's no disguising this is a serious problem. It's going to be a long haul...It's going to be difficult, it's going to take time," he told a news conference.

Blair signalled he might wait until the last minute before deciding whether to call elections on May 3 or hold back while he tackles the foot-and-mouth crisis.

Blair let slip his dilemma when a television microphone picked up his private conversation with European Commission President Romano Prodi, who asked how long he had before he had to make a decision on the timing of a general election.

"It's about 10 days," was Blair's reply.

In their advice to the British government, Imperial College in London, the University of Edinburgh and the Institute of Animal Health all proposed accelerating the present rate of slaughter.

"Speedier slaughter of infected animals will help to reduce transmission," the ministry note said.

"But this needs to be accompanied by immediate slaughter of all susceptible species around infected farms, otherwise the final number of cases will be very high."

Imperial College also suggested vaccinating animals. Britain has resisted using vaccination so far because allowing animals possibly carrying the virus to survive would mean Britain losing its disease-free status - and its export markets.

Agriculture Minister Nick Brown said he was keeping all options open, including vaccination.

In Brussels, European Union veterinary experts authorised limited use of vaccines to help the Netherlands fight foot- and-mouth, but a widespread inoculation policy was ruled out.

When the first Dutch outbreak was confirmed on Thursday, the Government placed a total ban on animal and dairy exports.

But Agriculture Minister Laurens-Jan Brinkhorst told a news conference that Dutch provinces not been hit by foot-and-mouth might resume exports next week.

He added that shipments of animal feed and dairy produicts could resume outside the protected areas around the site where the disease had been found or was suspected.

- REUTERS

Herald Online feature: Foot-and-mouth disaster

UK outbreak map

World organisation for animal health

UK Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food

The European Commission for the Control of Foot-and-Mouth Disease

Pig Health/Foot and Mouth feature

Virus databases online