Growth calculator for kids

Canadian researchers have devised a low-tech method they say can predict a child's ultimate height within a few centimetres.

Parents who are curious about their children's future stature can perform the calculation themselves, with the help of little more than a tape measure.

Also, according to the researchers, their prediction method could prove practically useful in sports.

A problem in youth sports is that there is a bias toward children who have already begun their adolescent growth spurt, said study co-author Dr Adam D. Baxter-Jones.

But if, for example, a short adolescent boy is merely a late bloomer and destined to top 1.83m, then volleyball may indeed be his game.

"We wanted to give coaches, teachers and other professionals working in this area a non-invasive technique to distinguish the late maturers from the early maturers," said Dr Baxter-Jones, an associate professor of kinesiology at the University of Saskatchewan, in Saskatoon, Canada.

"I don't want to say this is absolute because I don't want to predict that someone's going to be 6ft 2in [1.9m] and they end up being 5ft 8in [1.7m] and they put all their eggs in one basket and join volleyball. But it has the potential to give the coach a broad indication of where the child is going to end up and therefore, for talent identification, it could be extremely useful."

Dr Baxter-Jones and his colleagues arrived at their height-prediction formula by studying 224 boys and 120 girls between the ages of 8 and 16. They found that a calculation based on a child's age, height, weight and sitting height - which gauges leg length in relation to total height - could predict boys' adult height within 5cm and girls' height within 5cm and 8cm.

The prediction tool is available online (see link below).

Dr Baxter-Jones and his colleagues report their findings in the October issue of the Journal of Pediatrics, where they point out that there have long been other methods for predicting a child's future height, but they all have drawbacks.

There are methods such as using the average of both parents' heights - but Dr Baxter-Jones said his team's formula seems to be more accurate.

Specifically, the tool's use of sitting height gives an estimate of a child's current biological maturity - that is, how far he or she is from a growth spurt.

On average, girls have a growth spurt at about age 12, while boys' heights tend to take off at age 14; there are, however, early and late "bloomers" and the new prediction tool takes this into account.

However, Dr Baxter-Jones pointed to some limitations of the method as well.

While the method is low-tech enough for parents to do themselves, they do need to be precise in taking the measurements that are to be plugged into the formula.

In addition, the tool is intended only for healthy children between the ages of 8 and 16, and not those with any medical condition affecting growth. And because all of the children in the study were white, it's not clear yet whether the formula is accurate for other racial groups.

- REUTERS