Gloom, riots shadow summit

JERUSALEM - The summit convened to coax the Middle East away from the brink of prolonged and wider violence was only a few hours old yesterday before it was engulfed by gloom and more bloodshed.

As negotiators resumed deliberations last night after a day of marathon talks in Egypt's balmy Sharm el-Sheikh resort, there was little optimism that an agreement was emerging to stop the immediate conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, let alone to restore moves towards salvaging moribund peace negotiations.

In his opening remarks, President Bill Clinton said the summit "cannot afford to fail," and appealed to everyone "to move beyond blame." But it was at once clear that the last 18 days of bloodshed have unearthed far too much latent malice, and created far too much resentment, for this to be possible.

As he was speaking, a military spokesman back in Israel was busy sending out e-mails inviting journalists to view a video of "Palestinian incitement to violence" - an Imam telling his congregation to go out and kill Jews - and handing out profiles of alleged Palestinians "terrorists."

Moments earlier, the summit's host, the Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, had been complaining - to thunderous looks from Ehud Barak - about "the military aggression of the Israelis against the Palestinians." And soon afterwards the streets of Gaza and the West Bank were filling up with demonstrators, some posing in black masks with Kalashnikovs, who have yet to move beyond rocks and molotov cocktails and bullets - let alone the blame game.

On the stark streets of the occupied territories - far away from the luxury hotels, spas and coral lagoons of Egypt's Red Sea playground - there was precious little evidence that the mood is ripe for a ceasefire, let alone lasting peace.

All day, there were riots - albeit significantly less than at the height of the unrest. One Palestinian policeman was killed, and at least 63 Palestinians and two Israeli soldiers had been injured. According to a Palestinian hospital in Bethlehem, they included a 14-year-old boy who was brain dead after being shot in the head with a rubber bullet.

Nor is Israel ready. The national mindset has hardened. More than ever, Israelis believe that at the July Camp David summit Arafat rejected the best deal he is ever likely to get - an offer of extreme generosity, in Israel's eyes - and that he therefore has no interest in peace. The possibility that Barak will return home to create an emergency government - embracing the right-wing Likud Party led by Ariel Sharon - looms large.

The streets of Jerusalem were unusually quiet yesterday, as they have been since the current crisis descended upon the region two weeks ago. Cafes were half empty and traffic was thin. The quietness reflected not just a diminished presence, but a diminished mood.

"I don't remember a period of tension like this, ever," said a man who had been through several of Isreal's wars. Numerous Israelis who had been avid supporters of the peace process are now revising their mindset to accomodate the notion that it could be war, not peace.

There is confidence among Israelis that the security forces can cope with whatever challenge the country faces, whether it be terrorist bombers in streets and buses or full-scale war with a combination of Arab countries. That confidence helps ease the mental switch to the prospect of confrontation.

It was hardly surprising that the world's high flyers in Middle East diplomacy - Clinton, US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan, King Abdullah II of Jordan and Mubarak - began the talks knowing that they would have to aim low. They searched not to make history but to establish stop-gap measures aimed at slowing down the violence.

Both sides have laid out their terms for this. The Palestinians want an end to the closure of the occupied territories and the Israeli military blockade of its towns, coupled with an international inquiry into the causes of the violence. The Israelis want the Palestinian police to stop shooting at them, and the arrest of Hamas and Jihad activists recently released from Palestinian prisons, and a joint security mechanism to stop more bloodshed.

But even if order is restored, the prospect for anything larger is dismal.

For Clinton, the stakes are almost as high as for the Israeli and Palestinian leaders.

Attempts to mediate a lasting Middle East peace settlement have been central to Clinton's foreign policy efforts ever since 1993 when he stood on the White House lawn and engineered the historic handshake between Yasser Arafat and the late Itzhak Rabin. Since then, he has successively failed to finish what President Jimmy Carter, began at Camp David in 1979.

The Wye River accord of September 1998, which was little more than a reiteration of the Oslo accords, achieved nothing. Nor did his brinkmanship at Camp David three months ago.

Now, rather than presiding over a momentous peace agreement, he finds himself trying to stem bloodshed and prevent a war in a region to which he had hoped to bring peace. Aspersions may be cast on his widely praised judgement in trying to force the page of agreement. Violence in the Middle East would deprive him of his claim to be leaving America at peace in the world, and could jeopardise the chances of Vice-President Al Gore succeeding him.

- INDEPENDENT, HERALD CORRESPONDENT

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