Gillard's house of cards

Julia Gillard. Photo / Getty Images

Australia's new federal government is looking like it's built on a house of cards.

And a house of cards is a dicey business.

But there's no reason why, with a level table, a steady hand, and a high-quality pack that it can't stand for a reasonable time.

To say Julia Gillard has been dealt a difficult hand would be an understatement.

This week, after 17 days of talks, she emerged with the support of independents Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott.

Their allegiance came with a A$10 billion price tag for regional health, education and transport, and a few catches.

The two NSW MPs agreed to back the government on the budget and motions of no confidence, so long as it remains free from maladministration or corruption.

But they haven't given any guarantees on passing legislation. Oakeshott and Windsor expect all Labour's pledges to them be delivered, on time and on budget.

Their biggest expectation is that the A$43 billion national broadband network - a key Labour election promise - will provide cheap and reliable internet access for businesses, health and education services and families in the bush.

But those promises teeter on top of another promise - that Labour can get its 30 per cent minerals resource rent tax through the two houses of parliament.

The tax revenue is intended to help pay for the regional programs that form the basis of the agreement with the independents.

The coalition, which opposes the tax, has seized on uncertainty over the mining tax as a sign of a rift between Labor and Windsor.

In his talks with Labour, the New England MP secured a fresh look at the tax reform proposals made by Treasury chief Ken Henry, including the mining tax.

But while Treasurer Wayne Swan is happy for broad consultation on the mining tax, he wants it largely kept intact.

Consultation always has its risks - and there's no certainty the lower house or Senate will pass the planned tax on iron ore and coal miners' profits.

Swan will be hoping the fact that the extra tax revenue has been clearly earmarked to provide a boost for the bush will see the bill take a steady course through parliament.

Then there are Labour's other election promises: paid parental leave, major rail projects for Sydney and Brisbane, education tax breaks, performance-based school funding, A$7 billion in hospitals and health funding, and a regional processing centre for asylum seekers.

While most of these goals should be straightforward enough, since they so closely resemble coalition policies, action on asylum seekers could be frustrated by the independents and Greens.

Which brings us to the wild cards - the Greens and independent Andrew Wilkie.

The Greens' Adam Bandt and leader Bob Brown secured a deal with Labour which they signed with great fanfare in Parliament House.

Including the concessions won by Wilkie - a Tasmanian independent and former intelligence analyst - Labour has made a long list of promises.

Among them are a study of fixed three-year terms, a debate on the Afghanistan war, a referendum on recognising indigenous Australians and local government in the Constitution, a study on high-speed rail, and pokies reform.

The Greens will hold the Senate balance of power from July 2011, so they will have to be kept on side.

Labour will need to show finesse when Bob Brown's team comes to the parliament with its election promises, including tougher environmental regulation, recognition of same-sex marriage and higher corporate taxes.

All the while, the government can bet that Tony Abbott and the coalition - angry and disappointed over the independents siding with Labour - will be shaking the table.

Opposition frontbencher Christopher Pyne didn't hold back when he described the Labour-independent-Green alliance as "putting the mongoose and the cobra together".

"This will not be a parliament where all of its history is turned on its head and we all sit around smoking a peace pipe singing Kumbaya," he said.

Abbott has vowed to hold Labour "ferociously to account", arguing his team won more seats and got a higher primary vote at the poll.

Labour's trump card, however, is leader Julia Gillard.

She showed a steady hand against the odds in negotiations with the Greens, Wilkie and country independents.

And she's made "consensus" her mantra, taking a leaf out of Bob Hawke's book.

Gillard hopes new initiatives, such as a multi-party climate change committee and a regional development committee of cabinet, will go some way towards ensuring everyone is on board before reforms go to parliament.

She also has very high expectations of her ministers - jokers in the pack beware!

Frontbencher Simon Crean summed up the government's view on Thursday when asked about the government's potentially shaky position.

"To argue that having to negotiate ... is somehow going to lead to instability, I think, is madness," he said.

"In the context of having to get agreement, it will be a more open and transparent operation."

Crean's words, of course, were delivered with a poker face.

- AAP