Gillard stumbles as Abbott cruises

Prime Minister Julia Gillard today begins the third week of her campaign to become Australia's first elected female Prime Minister with one overwhelming priority: get back on track.

Gillard spent the weekend still on the back foot, reeling from yet further leaks, the crushing shadow of ousted predecessor Kevin Rudd, and a poll predicting defeat at the hands of resurgent Opposition Leader Tony Abbott.

Unless she can shed the baggage that is cluttering her every step, Gillard is in real danger of becoming a brief footnote in Australian political history.

This message came through clearly during two days in the sprawling electorate of Eden-Monaro, a bellwether seat that for the past 40 years has gone with whichever party has won power.

In an electorate that encircles Canberra and runs from the alps to the sea, voters may not have liked the way Gillard dumped Rudd, but consider it secondary to what they really want to hear: sound, clearly articulated policies that address the things that most concern them.

Time and again, these were led by health, education, the environment and employment.

In the tiny village of Nimmitabel, nestled on the high plains, shopowner Britt Roijer had no time for Rudd's ousting or Cabinet leaks.

"They're in the past," she said. "I'm interested in the future, but nobody has any really concrete policy."

On the coast, Batemans Bay tree-lopper Tony Hughes will probably vote Greens, because neither of the main parties has produced convincing arguments for his support.

For many voters, Gillard has not demonstrated the leadership they want.

If she had, Rudd would not have become the albatross that continues to hang around her neck.

Her first crucial test was the successful conclusion of the three criteria for the calling of an election she laid down for herself after deposing Rudd: a solution to the crisis over a mining tax, an answer to the growing armada of asylum seekers, and a climate change policy. All continue to dog her. The smaller mining companies are in rebellion over the deal struck with the sector's giants, her proposal for an offshore detention centre in East Timor has backfired, and her climate change policy - especially plans for a "citizens' assembly" to debate it - has been disastrous.

A Nielsen poll in the Sydney Morning Herald at the weekend showed more than half of the respondents opposed it, and 60 per cent favoured a greenhouse emissions scheme - well in the background of Gillard's plans.

The sidelining of Labor's earlier ETS proposal was the start of the avalanche that ultimately swept Rudd from power.

Nor has Gillard's campaign stamped her mark on the Government. While proclaiming Labor's economic credentials through its handling of the global financial crisis, she has failed to produce a cohesive, visionary package of policies for the election.

And while most of the record she can promote was that achieved under Rudd, the former leader continues to crowd out her message - from leaks about her alleged deal-busting to claims both she and Rudd dodged meetings of Cabinet's national security committee and, at the weekend, allegations that he was used by the former conservative government to undermine then-shadow Foreign Minister Laurie Brereton.

Former Foreign Minister Alexander Downer told the Sydney Sunday Telegraph that he had used Rudd "mercilessly" by handing him compromising information, which Rudd later leaked to the media in a bid to undermine Brereton and win his job.

Rudd has denied the allegations and is seeking legal advice, Downer has said his comments were misinterpreted, Abbott has said he does not believe the story, and Gillard has slammed the Coalition for attacking Rudd while he is down.

Rudd is recovering from urgent surgery to remove his gall bladder.

But Rudd remains for many people the main suspect for leaks damaging to Gillard and she faces a perception that she is not in control of her party - a perception that will worsen if confidential information continues to corrode her campaign.

Abbott, in contrast, has been thriving since his televised debate with Gillard.

He has been in control of his campaign, has measured his public persona to a broader electorate, and has been able to keep his message on track while doing all he can to keep Gillard's off the rails.

Saturday's poll showed the result - a 6 per cent swing against the Government in just one week, placing the Coalition ahead by 52 per cent to 48 per cent in the two-party preferred vote.

SOUNDBITES

* Former Liberal Foreign Minister Alexander Downer, denying reports he had used ousted Prime Minister Kevin Rudd as a "double agent" to spread leaks: "The journalist who wrote the story has created a more controversial story than my comments warranted."
* Rudd's spokesman, also denying the report as "completely and utterly false" and warning that legal advice was being sought: "These are serious allegations. Mr Rudd takes them seriously."
* Western Sydney voter Jonathon Mascorella, telling the Sydney Morning Herald where the campaign's going wrong: "There needs to be far more discussion on real issues like education, health and real policy announcements."
*Reader Max Vallis, in a letter to the Australian's editor: "Where's the Monster Raving Loony Party when you need them?"
* Prime Minister Julia Gillard, on reports that some senior Labor figures have bet against the Government with internet gaming houses: "It's pretty crook to bet against your own team."
* Opposition Leader Tony Abbott, promising to reform question time in Parliament if elected: "Question time is basically responsible adults shouting at each other."
* Abbott again, dismissing Saturday's poll placing the Opposition ahead of Labor: "These polls are very volatile, I am very much the underdog in this election campaign."
* Gillard on the same poll: "Let's be very clear about this, we're in a fight."