Game on: Gillard set for a fight

Prime Minister Julia Gillard. Photo / Getty Images

Tony Abbott could reflect on the old saying that you should be careful what you wish for.

Back before he was Leader of the Opposition, and when Julia Gillard was a regular sparring partner, Abbott more than once remarked that Australia's new Prime Minister would make a great Labor Party leader.

Now she is, and since this week's tectonic reshaping of Australia's political landscape Abbott will be feeling the impact. While it was never going to be easy, building a campaign with any hope of beating the Government in the coming election has become even harder. Gillard was quick to remind her rival of this, approaching him in Parliament after being sworn in as the country's 27th leader and whispering in his ear, "Game on".

Not that Gillard's road will be smooth. For all the glow that will inevitably surround her early days as the nation's first female prime minister, she still remains leader of an administration that has made some very unpopular decisions, and mismanaged others. As Kevin Rudd's deputy, she was a key mover and shaker in that process.

Judging the real effect of the sudden and brutal departure of Rudd on Thursday morning will take some time, as the nation's voters adjust to the speed at which it all happened, and try to work out what it means.

Some idea of public confusion can be gained from early internet polls. The day after the coup News Ltd polling showed only about one-third of voters preferred Gillard to Abbott in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia, almost 44 per cent in Victoria and 48 per cent in South Australia. But on Fairfax news sites yesterday, 62 per cent predicted Gillard would win the election she has promised "within months".

And the nation's gamblers, whose money has in the past predicted the outcome of elections with surprising accuracy, jumped in behind Gillard.

Within a day of the coup online betting had pruned the Government's odds from A$1.50 to A$1.38 ($1.89-$1.69), and pushed the Coalition's up from A$2.52 to A$2.95 ($3.09-$3.62).

The wide expectation is that more formal polling will allow Gillard a honeymoon period during which voters will take her measure while she consolidates her position and sets new priorities and packages for Labor.

Experience suggests this will come at the expense of Abbott and the Opposition, and that if Gillard measures up, Labor will regain sufficient strength to win a second term, as all Australian federal governments have done for 80 years or so.

None of this is automatic. Gillard will have to select a new ministry, in which her former boss may find a seat. He has indicated his willingness to serve, and Gillard has said she will be discussing the possibility with him.

Having Rudd firmly in the ranks would help smooth the transition. Even in the bloodied history of Australian politics, his ousting stood out for its brutality and Gillard has already been working to avoid the mask of smiling assassin.

One of her hallmarks had been her loyalty to Rudd, even as his support collapsed around him and polling pushed Labor towards the abyss. During her first press conference, Gillard said she had argued for change from within, that her denials of potential challenge had been genuine, and that she had come to her decision to stand against Rudd only in the last few days, when it was clear the Government had lost its way.

Gillard is promoting a picture of duty done sadly, and painfully: "I came to the view that a good Government was losing its way. I came to the view that for the Australian nation I had a responsibility to step up, to take control and to make sure that this Government got back on track.

"And I believe, too, I've got a responsibility to make sure that at the next election, Labor is there at its strongest, putting its case as to why the Australian people cannot and should not risk the Opposition's cuts to health and education and a return to Work Choices [industrial legislation]."

Gillard now has two immediate jobs: pull the party behind her, and successfully repackage its policies without damaging the Government's record.

The first will be relatively easy. If Labor wants to retain power it has to rally behind her now and knuckle down to the hard slog of reversing the polling trend that was rapidly spelling doom for the Government. The formidable Labor machine will already be imposing its discipline.

The second will be more difficult, but not impossible. Gillard's strategy is already clear: emphasise the Rudd administration's achievements, accept its failings - and her part in them - and massage the unpopular policies into a more palatable form.

This has started in the three most damaging areas: On climate change, Gillard has declared herself a passionate believer in carbon pricing, pledging to resurrect an emissions trading scheme after a process of education and consensus which she will begin immediately after winning the election. On asylum seekers, a delicate fence-straddling strategy of compassion versus empathy with suburban fears, and a promise of strong border management.

On the mining super-profits tax, a truce that has already seen both sides pull their television advertising blitzes, a promise of negotiations to which the industry has responded warmly, and the suggestion of a compromise that will placate miners while delivering in some form the pledge of a fairer slice of the nation's wealth for its people.

How successful this will be to a nation of natural cynics remains to be seen. Above all, in the personality-driven style of modern Australian politics, Gillard will have to successfully face off against Abbott.

In her favour Gillard has her status as first female prime minister, a long record of strong performance, intelligence, an eloquent and empathetic style, incumbency, and a high-powered and finely-tuned party machine. Emphasis will be placed on marginal seats and swinging voters.

She does have her work cut out to turn the polls around, but pollster Roy Morgan said most women preferred Gillard as Labor leader and Gillard only had to win over male voters to retain power.

Abbott will be portrayed as a mean-spirited, second-rate copy of former conservative prime minister John Howard, who is intending to hew back the most basic services to the nation's hardest working and most deserving.

He will be working in the shadow of Gillard's glare, and without Rudd to drive down Labor's polling.

While recent polls placed the Opposition's primary vote above Labor's, and a poll-winning advantage in the two-party preferred vote, this reflected the Government's woes rather than Coalition's success. Abbott has managed only to restore the Opposition's support to 2007 levels.

Abbott's immediate response to Gillard has been to portray the Government as an old shop with a new paint job - "They have changed the salesman but they haven't changed the product" - and to picture the Prime Minister as a leader installed in the "highest non-elected office in the land" by Labor's right wing "mafia".

But if Gillard can mute concern on the mining tax, asylum seekers and climate change - her ascension has been welcomed by the Greens and environmental groups - Abbott's arsenal will be significantly weakened.

He further continues to suffer from his association with Howard's administration, especially its industrial laws, and has his own, personal, problems with image and gender issues.

Abbott has made a number of gaffes that have hurt his already shallow support among women - making his job of attacking Gillard all the more difficult.