French vote risks EU gridlock

The European Union is bracing itself for one of the biggest crises in its 48-year history with the prospect that French voters will tomorrow strike down a proposed EU constitution and Dutch voters will follow suit just three days later.

In both countries, pro-EU campaigners are throwing themselves into a last-ditch effort to win over the electorate, declaring that the momentum that has made Europe a haven of stability and welfare is at threat.

French President Jacques Chirac made an impassioned last appeal to French voters not to deliver a devastating "No". Chirac, who is reported to have become demoralised and resigned to defeat, warned voters that Europeans would regard a negative vote as a "No to Europe".

He said the French had a historic choice between giving their country a stronger role within Europe and, as one of the founding nations of the community, "breaking the unity of Europe".

But the latest opinion polls suggest a strong majority for No, driven by citizens determined to punish the incumbent governments, worried by European enlargement or fearing the loss of their jobs to low-cost new EU countries.

Yet the surveys also indicate a large number of people are wavering or indifferent and could thus sway the outcome on the day.

Reaching out to this big minority, Chirac made a heartfelt plea in a nationwide address on Thursday evening, carried on national radio and TV from the Elysee Palace and preceded by a sober rendition of the Marseillaise. He declared: "On Sunday, each one of you will have part of France's destiny in your hands."

Chirac argued that the charter would boost France's standing in the EU, whose numbers rose from 15 to 25 in a controversial "Big Bang" enlargement last year.

And, he said, it would strengthen democracy in the EU institutions and provide a bulwark against the "ultra-liberal" economics of ruthless competition, opposed by so many in France.

"It is an illusion to think that Europe will happily start out again with another plan," he warned. "There is no other plan.

"Europe would be broken down, searching for consensus. In the meantime, the world would move on, faster and faster, and France would be in a less strong position to defend its interests."

The latest opinion polls in France, published on Thursday, give 54 or 55 per cent to the "No" camp among those intending to vote. If these figures prove true, the EU will be thrown into a political emergency.

The constitution has to be ratified by all EU member states to take effect, and its core is a proposed overhaul of decision-making to cope with the Big Bang.

So rejection by France - a major economy, a founding EU member and a traditional "locomotive" of European consolidation - would sap the European spirit and plunge the union into institutional gridlock, pessimists say.

Another big casualty would be Chirac himself, who not only came up with the grand idea of an EU constitution but also looked for popular endorsement of it rather than approval by Parliament.

Much of the rejectionist vote is being stirred by deep animosity towards the neo-Gaullist head of state among far-right and far-left electors as well as by Socialists who are defying the urgings of their party to vote Yes.

Chirac has two years left of his five-year tenure, but has already scotched speculation that he may quit if the Yes campaign fails. Rumours are flying in Paris that the head of state, a wily political veteran, is already preparing a fallback plan - he will seek to deflect blame by firing Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin, replacing the hapless premier with a loyalist such as Defence Minister Michele Alliot-Marie.

But Pierre Giacometti, head of the Ipsos polling agency, said there could be a Cabinet bloodbath if the defeat was major.

"If there is a gap of several million votes, then no one will be spared," he said.

In the Netherlands, two opinion polls indicated 51 to 54 per cent would vote No, with only 27 to 29 per cent voting Yes.

The Dutch referendum is consultative and not legally binding, but politicians have pledged to take the outcome into consideration in a parliamentary vote.

Chirac's frequent appeals on French TV, in which he was usually interviewed by a tame journalist, have been another factor in the campaign.

The No lobby said this was blatant propaganda, compounded by unquestioning support for the Yes campaign in most of the French press.

"We have really had an overdose [of Chirac]," said former premier Laurent Fabius, a dissident Socialist.