French 'no' camp holds lead ahead of EU treaty vote

PARIS - The leaders of Germany and Spain made final pleas to French voters on Friday to back the European Union's constitution, seeking to reverse the "No" camp's lead in opinion polls on the last day of campaigning.

One survey showed a sharp drop in the size of the majority opposing the treaty, giving its supporters some hope before Sunday's French referendum. The lone poll could be a lifeline for the "Yes" camp, led by President Jacques Chirac.

Supporters say rejection would kill the constitution and weaken France in Europe. Opponents say a "No" would force the EU to redraft the treaty and improve it.

German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder Schroeder made an impassioned plea to French voters to back the charter.

"We ask the French people to vote 'Yes' with all their hearts," he told a rally in the southwestern city of Toulouse. Germany's upper house of parliament's approved the constitution earlier on Friday.

Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero French urged voters not to use the referendum to vent their discontent with Chirac's conservative government, which is unpopular because of its cost-cutting reforms and high unemployment.

"The elections - they last four or five years in France, but a constitution is for a whole generation. It's a whole life plan for millions and millions of Europeans," Zapatero, a Socialist, told a rally in the northern city of Lille.

A poll by Ifop research group showed the "No" camp far ahead on 56 per cent support. But a survey by CSA polling group showed 52 per cent of voters who have decided how to vote will oppose the charter, a drop of 3 percentage points since Thursday.

The CSA poll put supporters of the treaty on 48 per cent, a figure that rose to 49 per cent among voters questioned on Friday - one day after Chirac made a final televised plea to voters to back the constitution.

Backers of the treaty were also lifted by an appeal from Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi for voters to support the charter. The architect of the text, former French president Valery Giscard d'Estaing, said he hoped for a "Yes" vote.

An opinion poll showed opposition to the constitution also falling among Dutch voters to 52 per cent from 54 per cent a week earlier. The Netherlands votes in a referendum next Wednesday.

First estimates of the French vote will come after polling stations close in big cities at 10pm (8am Sunday NZT).

The constitution is intended to make the EU work more smoothly following its enlargement last year and requires the backing of all 25 member states to go into force.

Supporters say the constitution will help make Europe and France stronger. Opponents say it enshrines economic policies that have failed to stop the loss of jobs to low-wage economies, including to countries outside the European Union such as China.

"If the 'No' wins, there will be not only a European crisis ... but also an enormous political upheaval in France," said Christophe Barbier, deputy editor of L'Express magazine.

"All the leaders of the large parties will be discredited and we will enter a period of uncertainty which will be twilight time for Jacques Chirac and a jungle for all the parties trying to survive," he told Europe 1 radio.

A pledge by Chirac on Thursday to seek a new political impetus if the charter is rejected was dismissed by the treaty's critics.

"We've been hearing that from Chirac for the past 10 years," Laurent Fabius, the leading Socialist opposing the treaty, told France 3 television.

Chirac's comment was seen as a hint that he could fire Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin.

Interior Minister Dominique de Villepin and Nicolas Sarkozy, ambitious head of Chirac's conservative Union for a Popular Movement party, are the frontrunners to replace Raffarin if he is sacked.

- REUTERS