The no-confidence motion will be debated this Sunday and could be put to a vote on Monday. If it passes, the reforms will fall along with the Prime Minister and government.
Macron could also dissolve parliament and call snap elections, but that is unlikely given his unpopularity, with his Renaissance group at risk of losing even more MPs.
Although Macron lost his absolute majority in the lower house of parliament in elections last year, the chances of a no-confidence vote succeeding remain slim unless a surprise alliance of MPs from all sides is formed, from the far-left to the far-right.
The leaders of the conservative Les Republicains (LR) party – whose block of 61 seats makes them kingmakers – have ruled out such an alliance. Individual LR lawmakers said they would break ranks, but the no-confidence bill would require all of the other opposition MPs and half of LR’s votes to go through, which is a tall order.
After promising to put his unpopular pension reform – which raises the retirement age from 62 to 64 by 2030 – to a parliamentary vote, Macron enacted a humiliating climbdown on Thursday by driving the legislation through without a ballot via a “nuclear” article in the French constitution called 49.3.
Elisabeth Borne, the Prime Minister, was booed vociferously by the opposition who called on her to resign, saying the move was a denial of parliamentary democracy.
After a night of sporadic violence and more than 300 arrests across the country, unions and analysts warned that France could be heading for the type of chaotic scenes of violent quasi-insurrection that wracked the country during the so-called gilets jaunes (yellow vest) revolt of 2018.
More than eight out of every 10 people are unhappy with the government’s decision to skip a vote in parliament, and 65 per cent want strikes and protests to continue, a Toluna Harris Interactive poll for RTL radio showed.
In an ominous sign of rising anger, protesters in central Dijon, Burgundy, burned effigies of the centrist French president on Thursday night, along with those of Borne, Olivier Veran, a government spokesman, and Olivier Dussopt, a labour minister.
Gerald Darmanin, the interior minister, received a request to provide protection to MPs who had backed the pension reform due to threats.
At a rail strike protest in Paris’ Gare de Lyon today, Daniel Terlynck of the reputedly moderate UNSA-Ferroviaire union, said that the conclusion to be drawn from Macron’s refusal to put the reform to a vote was that he only made concessions when faced with radical action.
“Through its stubbornness, the government is exposing itself to an explosion in violence. We warned them. We regret it but the only time it caved in – and handed over €13 billion ($22 billion) – was when faced with yellow-vest violence,” he said.
Various demonstrations were planned over the weekend and a fresh day of mass strike rallies slated for next Thursday. Trade unions urged workers to step up and they briefly blocked the Paris ring road.
‘Chaos and violence’
“Something fundamental happened, and that is that, immediately, spontaneous mobilisations took place throughout the country,” said Jean-Luc Melenchon, the leader of the far-Left party France Unbowed. “It goes without saying that I encourage them, I think that’s where it’s happening.”
Even if the government survives a no-confidence vote, political analysts said it would remain a “Pyrrhic victory” for Macron.
“The legacy will be a very damaged relationship between the French public and the president,” warned Stephane Zumsteeg, head of polling in France for the Ipsos public opinion group.
Dominique Rousseau, a jurist and professor of constitutional law, said that “there has clearly been a denial of parliamentary democracy” and that in his opinion the government “can no longer govern as it no longer commands a majority even on other bills”.
“I think that if we want to avoid chaos and violence, we’ll either need to stage a referendum or dissolve parliament.”
Editorialists were scathing of Macron’s tactics, saying he faced the prospect of being a lame duck for the rest of his presidency.
Maurice Bontinck of Charente Libre wrote: “One question dominates all others after this historic day, namely 11 months after it began, is Emmanuel Macron’s (second) five-year term already over?”
Beyond the man, this political crisis will fuel calls in France to reform its “presidential regime” in favour of a stronger parliamentary democracy free from the constant meddling of an all-powerful head-of-state.
