Fran O'Sullivan: Abbott fast becoming political feather duster

Abbott hasn't been able to convince Aussies that they've been living beyond their means as a nation and need to take strong corrective action. Photo / AP

Unlike John Key, Australia's Prime Minister unable to garner much-needed support

Just one year ago John Key and Tony Abbott were swapping conservative political strategies at a private dinner in Sydney.

There was plenty of bonhomie on show.

Abbott was still in the first flush of his prime ministership. He was gearing up for the Liberal's first Budget and girding his loins to face-down reaction to the policies his Government needed to implement after the commodity slump whacked the Australian economy.

The detail of their dinner conversation has not been publicly disclosed. But Abbott's body language at an earlier luncheon in Sydney was buoyant as he effusively praised Key and Bill English for their single-minded approach to government after the GFC. Both PMs would have had strong expectations that Australia would after a period of painful reform be set for a rebound.

Twelve months on, Key is still cock of the roost after being returned as Prime Minister for a third term.

Abbott is well on his way to being a political feather duster after his speech to the Canberra Press Club bombed. He has not been able to convince the Australian people that they have been living beyond their means as a nation and need to take strong corrective action.

There is now considerable uncertainty that Abbott will still be leading Australia when he and Key are scheduled to meet in Auckland in three weeks' time for the annual Australasian prime ministerial meeting.

Deeply unpopular and accident prone, Abbott has failed to keep the confidence of the Australian people and most importantly his political colleagues who are openly weighing his replacement by either Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull or deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop perhaps as early as next week in what will be the third party room assassination of a sitting Prime Minister in less than five years.

Abbott may not have been able to convince Australia.

But the challenges for whoever next gets to inhabit The Lodge in Canberra will be just as daunting as they have been for the current prime minister.

Treasurer Joe Hockey (once trumpeted as a future leader himself - but no longer) says the shock to the Australian economy through the huge write-down in iron ore prices, weak growth and the unexpected high in unemployment will hit Government revenues and could add another A$40 billion to the Government's budget deficit over the next four years, making the the goal of returning to surplus by 2018 a failure.

In his speech, Abbott said more was needed to put the budget on a credible path to a sustainable surplus - "but as New Zealand has demonstrated, a good way to achieve this is not to make any unnecessary new spending commitments".

Unfortunately, his countrymen are living in a bubble and Australia now stands at risk in joining the list of those nations where the political leaderships are too short-lived for substantial reforms to be made.

Even if Abbott has not been dislodged by a party assassination by February 28 - the date when the two Prime Ministers are expected to put in a showing at Eden Park to mark the ICC Cricket World Cup series which is being jointly hosted by Australia and New Zealand - his mind is not likely to be on transtasman matters.

Key will likely have deputed his chief of staff Wayne Eagleson to take soundings in Canberra on the likely replacements should Abbott be rolled.

Both Turnbull and Bishop are known quantities on this side of the Tasman.

Like Abbott, Turnbull is also one of former Australian Prime Minster John Howard's political proteges. (Key has also been mentored by Howard who passed the baton to him as chair of the International Democratic Union late last year.) He is a former Liberal Party leader but not as popular as Bishop.

It's important to New Zealand's success that the faltering Australia turnaround gets back on track. It is a major trading partner and also home to many thousands of New Zealanders who flocked there during the country long economic boom to build their futures.

We have a vested interest in their success (English only slightly jokingly refers to New Zealand as a "suburb" of Australia).

In April, Key will also stand shoulder to shoulder with the Australian PM at Anzac Cove in a ceremony to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the Gallipoli campaign.

It is important to both our nations' futures that Australia faces up to its challenges.