COMMENT:
The prevailing narrative is that China will be the pre-eminent power of the 21st century, thanks to its vast population and apparently ever-growing economy. But there are at least four good reasons to think this narrative is wrong - what might be termed the four Ds.
The first is demography. The commentariat is all a-twitter after the publication of China's most recent 10-year census. Even if you do not subscribe to the view of "lies, damned lies and Chinese Communist Party statistics" - and there are some oddities, such as the 0 to 14-year-old cohort numbering 14 million more than the total reached by adding up the births for individual years - it gives rise to some big concerns for Beijing.
One is the sparse number of births, far below the replacement rate, which means an ever-smaller number of workers must provide for the care of a fast-growing number of retired people. The size of China's workforce has started its decline: the 15-59 age group is 6.79 per cent smaller compared with 2010. The downturn in the total fertility rate will be difficult, if not impossible, to reverse: past policies mean fewer women of the age to give birth, while fewer women wish to have children.
Gender imbalance is another worrying factor for Beijing. In 2010, 118 men were born for every 100 women (the result of cultural preferences for a son leading to abortions). Ten years later, that figure is down to 111. The result is that China has entered an age in which 30-40 million men, aged 20 to 45, will never find female companionship. Sociologists believe that sexually frustrated males lead to crime, violence, and sometimes war.