Formulating plans for a new Iraq

The establishment of a truth and reconciliation commission, the creation of an international body to control oil supplies and the introduction of martial law are among plans being drawn up for the transformation of Iraq in the aftermath of a military strike against the regime of President Saddam Hussein.

Proposals have emerged from some of the 17 working groups established by the US State Department to examine issues ranging from transitional justice to the modernisation of the country's agriculture.

While the proposals do not represent a complete blueprint, they reveal that planning is intensifying as the prospect of a war looms nearer. The plans will harden once US officials know which other countries will be involved.

"None of the issues comes into sharp focus until you know if you have a coalition or whether it is just the US alone," said a State Department official.

"Waging the war without a coalition will be easy but waging the peace will be very difficult because the legacy of the US is not particularly auspicious."

Experts from the UN Development Programme believe the reconstruction of Iraq could cost US$30 billion ($54b) in the first two years alone. Individual countries will meet much of that though there is an agreement that money from Iraq's UN-supervised "oil for food" programme would pay for some of it. "I think there is an acceptance that the programme could be continued and that the money could be used to pay for some of the reconstruction," said a British Foreign Office official.

The future of Iraq's oilfields, which have reserves of at least 112 billion barrels, is perhaps the most contentious of the issues regarding the country's future.

While the US Secretary of State, Colin Powell, has insisted the oilfields will be protected for the "people of Iraq", there are concerns within the international community that American companies will be given first access to them.

To counter this, one of the plans being considered is to establish an international body, possibly supervised by the UN, to oversee the continued operation of Iraq's oil industry. "They could name a blue ribbon panel of experts - maybe put someone like [former US President] Jimmy Carter in charge of it," said a Bush Administration official.

The modernisation of the oil sector will be more difficult if Saddam adopts a "scorched earth" policy.

In the initial aftermath of any war, Iraq would be governed by a senior military officer - probably US General Tommy Franks - in conjunction with a civilian administrator. Names that have been cited as possible administrators include Surin Pitsuwan, Thailand's former foreign minister and Bernard Kouchner, the former French health minister, who headed the UN civilian administration in Kosovo.

Iraqis would act as advisers to this administration before gradually taking control in a series of transitional authorities. According to the proposals, the UN would oversee the transition to build a broad-based government. All plans emphasise the need to include Iraqis in all decision-making and utilise their expertise.

"We want to leave as soon as Iraqi people are able to do this themselves," said the State Department official.

While General Franks would initially impose martial law, there are plans to set up civilian courts as soon as possible. Officials have also proposed a truth and reconciliation commission, similar to that which took place in South Africa, as a way of trying to bring Iraqi people together. This might enable some aspects of the current Iraqi government to remain in position.

Officials from the US State Department and the Pentagon, and Britain's Foreign Office and Department for International Development realise the task of rebuilding will be huge. They have already identified the need to spend US$6.2 billion ($11.16b) to upgrade the country's electricity supply.

Experts have also identified the need to modernise Iraq's agriculture and raise yields.

Pest control equipment - restricted because of sanctions on pesticides - better seeds and spare parts for machinery would need to be shipped in. There are also plans to replant date palms in the south and fruit trees in the north of the country for their "important psychological value".

Plans to clean up Iraq's damaged environment include the restoration of the southern marshes - the home of Iraq's marsh Arabs. President Saddam destroyed up to 84 per cent of the marshes in the early 1990s.Andrew Buncombe

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Herald feature: Iraq