Firm support for US alliance, poll shows

Australian troops disembark from a US landing craft. Close defence ties with America are a priority. Photo / US Navy

Despite the unpopularity of the war in Afghanistan and a belief that the United States could draw the nation into a new conflict in Asia, Australians are clinging to the US alliance with even greater tenacity.

Most would support basing US troops on the continent and would back Australia following America into a full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula, a poll by the Lowy Institute for International Policy reports.

The poll also shows ambivalence about the risks and benefits of an ascendant China, continuing fears about the threat of terror attacks, but a solid belief that, despite all, the West's global primacy remains intact - or has even strengthened.

And Australians have faith in the major powers to "act responsibly", especially the US and Japan and, to a lesser but still significant degree, China, India and Russia.

The Lowy poll reflects Australia's rapidly emerging reassessment of its strategic future - in both military and economic terms - and mirrors Government concern to balance the nation's responses to potentially conflicting shifts in the balance of power.

Last week Defence Minister Stephen Smith announced a review likely to trigger a huge shift in Australian military power from the east to the north and west, in response to emerging challenges in the Asia Pacific region and the rim of the Indian Ocean.

With recent US studies predicting that Australia's alliance could rival Nato and America's special relationship with Britain, Canberra is planning to expand the intelligence co-operation, to join cyber warfare programmes and to increase joint training.

Proposals to pre-position American combat and other material in Australia are also being discussed.

The Lowy poll said that 82 per cent of Australians regard the alliance as important for Australia and believe that without it the nation would not be able to defend itself, even with the much higher military spending that the end of the pact would spark.

This support came despite the finding that almost three-quarters recognised the alliance meant Australia was more likely to be drawn into a war in Asia that would not be in Australia's interests.

As it is, resistance to Australian involvement in Afghanistan has continued to harden, with opposition rising by 5 per cent in the past year to 59 per cent - 13 per cent higher than in 2007.

But more than half of the poll's respondents were willing to send troops to join the US if North Korea provoked a full-scale war with South Korea.

The poll said that even with the nation split fairly evenly on whether US foreign policy was increasingly at odds with Australian interests, most believed the alliance made Australia safer from attack or pressure from China, and 55 per cent approved of the basing of US forces on the continent.

The prospect - played down by US Defence Secretary Robert Gates - was opposed by 43 per cent of respondents, although only one-fifth were "strongly opposed".

"The results highlight that Australians see the alliance as a natural extension of our shared values and ideals with Americans, that they believe Australia would have to spend much more to properly defend itself without US support and that they recognise this support comes with the risk of being drawn into a war that is not in Australia's interests," the poll said. But the poll also showed ambivalence to China which most respondents - incorrectly - believed was the world's leading economic power. The economies of the European Union and the US are larger.

Opinion was divided on whether China would pose a military threat to Australia in the next two decades, whether the US "should give China a larger say in regional affairs", and if Australia should join with other countries to limit China's influence.