Fence-sitting Chirac becomes a target for both sides

PARIS - France has plunged into what could be a long bout of high-voltage political tension and social unrest, with uncertain consequences for neighbouring countries and the European Union.

Backed by newly revived Socialist and Communist parties, French trade unions and students will tomorrow night stage their second nationwide strike and marches in a week to demand the scrapping of an employment law intended to make it easier to hire and fire young workers.

With just over a year to go before the next presidential and parliamentary elections, the smell in the air here is not of Paris in the spring but of disarray.

The conservative head of state has the look and quack of a lame duck, his Government and his party, the Union for the Popular Majority, are in a state of undeclared civil war, and few ministers can muster the courage to tackle desperately-needed reforms.

Over a political career spanning more than four decades, Chirac's response to mass protests is almost invariably to back down.

This time, though, he has been caught between a rock and a hard place. Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin, who designed the employment law and had it passed by decree to skirt debate in Parliament, is reported to have threatened to resign if the scheme is ditched.

Villepin, either dashing or reckless according to the view, is Chirac's last heavyweight loyalist. If Villepin goes, that will open the way to the premiership and more for Nicolas Sarkozy, the Interior Minister, who loathes Chirac and his clan.

Chirac runs the risk of investigation for alleged financial wrong-doings after he leaves office. If he does not run again in April 2007, or if he does so and is defeated, he will need a loyalist in the presidency to prevent France's finest from knocking on his door, goes the thinking.

This is the background behind Chirac's agonising nationwide television address on Saturday, in which he sought to placate Villepin by standing by the planned employment law while at the same time appeasing the protesters by promising to gut most of the legislation.

The response, even from Chirac's traditional supporters, has been acid.

"All he has done is to annoy all the French: both the right-wing voters, who are upset at this latest undoing of their monarch; and the employees, the trades unions and the young, who will see this Elysee Palace farce as a provocation and an encouragement to keep up the struggle," said France-Soir.

"The Government has been so weakened by this terrible conflict that it will be unable to tackle new reforms by the next elections," said Le Figaro.

The Financial Times said Chirac had merely bought himself a little bit of time: "The question now is whether Mr Chirac will stand by his impetuous officer to the bitter end or throw him off the bridge in the face of intensifying fire to save them both. The next few weeks for France could prove momentous."

Other countries are looking nervously at the French crisis, wondering what the impact will be their economies and labour relations, and for the EU generally.

Almost unnoticed by the world media last week were two huge strikes in the EU's other biggest economies. A million public-sector workers staged a one-day stoppage in Britain, the country's largest strike since 1926, in a protest over changes to the retirement age.

In Germany, where labour reforms are gingerly being implemented by a left-right coalition Government, public-sector workers and the powerful metalworkers union IG Metall struck for higher pay.

David Marsden, a professor of labour relations at the London School of Economics, believes that France's unrest has the risk of spreading.

"Sometimes there can be particularly striking events which trigger a change in the way people think about things, and what people put up with for a long time in the past suddenly becomes something which is a burning issue," says Marsden. "Like a pan of milk, if you don't watch it, it could boil over."

Other analysts believe the EU could quickly become the whipping boy. Gridlock at home may tempt Chirac to grandstand abroad, blocking unpopular EU-level decisions and pushing an agenda of national interests.

This could further entangle EU decision-making, already dogged by national squabbles since the club carried out its "Big Bang" enlargement from 15 to 25 countries in 2004.