Fears on population, refugees haunt Rudd

CANBERRA - Almost a decade after the notorious Tampa affair, asylum seekers and fears of a population bomb have come back to haunt an Australian election year.

Former Liberal Prime Minister John Howard's decision to use special forces to block the entry of more than 400 asylum seekers rescued from the sea by the Norwegian vessel the MV Tampa was a key turning point in a campaign that swept the Coalition back into power in 2001.

Howard's tough policies on boatpeople, including his "Pacific solution" of interning asylum seekers in Papua New Guinea and Nauru, were targeted and largely overturned by his Labor successor, Kevin Rudd.

But now, with the nation increasingly worried by projections of a population of almost 36 million within 40 years and a resurgence in refugee boats crossing the Indian Ocean from Indonesia, Rudd is facing a similar dilemma.

He is making policy on the run on two fronts as this year's election nears: asylum seekers, and population growth - formerly seen by Rudd as a strength for a "big Australia".

Although Labor continues to command an election-winning lead over the Coalition in the opinion polls, both issues are sensitive for a country that has always been nervous about invasion of any kind, and which has deep concerns about the number of people the fragile continent can sustain.

Treasury projections of a further 14 million people by 2050 have been supported by recent statistics warning of frightening growth in the nation's capital cities, straining already struggling roads, transport systems, housing and other infrastructure.

Two new polls have spelled out the nation's fears.

One, by the Lowy Institute for International Policy, found that while 72 per cent of Australians supported a larger population than the present 22 million, almost as many wanted to keep it below 30 million.

A Morgan poll reported that only 10 per cent of Australians wanted a population of 35 million by the middle of the century, with more than half wanting to keep numbers to between 22 million and 30 million.

But respondents were more divided on immigration: 11 per cent wanted an increase, 46 per cent supported present levels, and 39 per cent advocated a reduction.

The debate is clouded by contradictions that are hitting both main parties.

While an increasing population causes huge strains on infrastructure and the environment, the nation is already facing serious - and growing - skills shortages, the need to support an ageing population, and widespread argument that a stagnant or slow-growing population will stunt economic growth.

The rising volume of an election-year debate has also clouded some of the underlying elements of the Treasury's 36 million population projection - that net immigration is expected to fall from recent high levels of about 240,000 a year to 180,000, and that population growth will slow from the average 1.4 per cent of the past 40 years to about 1.2 per cent.

Rudd's immediate response has been to appoint Australia's first Population Minister, Tony Burke, who will oversee the development of the nation's first population strategy. The issue will also be addressed in the May budget.

Shadow Immigration Minister Scott Morrison initially said a Coalition Government would focus on skilled migration and cut back all temporary immigration visas, including those applying to New Zealanders.

Later, amid fury from business groups and backpedalling from other senior Opposition members, he conceded his ideas were not Coalition policy.

But the Opposition has successfully zeroed in on the continuing flow of asylum seekers that has now exceeded the capacity of detention facilities on Christmas Island.

This is sound political ground: a new Morgan poll said 64 per cent of Australians believe that asylum seekers arriving by boat should be returned to their homes. Only 26 per cent were happy with the present system.

Feeling the pressure, the Government announced an immediate suspension of the processing of all new applications from asylum seekers from Sri Lanka and Afghanistan because of improved conditions in the two countries.

Amid a loud outcry from human rights and refugee groups, Foreign Minister Stephen Smith said that while dangers may exist from the war in Afghanistan, Australia's obligation to accept refugees applied only to the risk of direct persecution.

He conceded that the move would not stop the flow of boats in the short term, but said it would send an effective message to people smugglers.

Critics such as the Human Rights Commission and the Refugee Council warned that the suspension - which applies to boats already on the water - meant a return to indefinite detention for asylum seekers from both countries.

Political winds are again blowing hard across the Indian Ocean.