KEY POINTS:
Little more than a month after Nicolas Sarkozy romped home in presidential elections, his Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) is poised for a dramatic sweep of the country's legislature, prompting some opponents to warn France is on the brink of elective dictatorship.
The centre-right UMP and its
allies can expect to win 44 per cent of the vote for the National Assembly, according to opinion polls before the first round of voting on Sunday. That tally would translate into as many as 460 of the 577 seats in the Parliament's Lower House, compared with 359 now.
The Socialist Party seems in despair, with its leaders pleading to supporters to continue the fight and urging the public not to let opposition in Parliament be reduced to a rump.
If the poll predictions are right, Sarkozy's "blue wave" would leave the Socialists with as few as 80 seats, compared with 149 today, and some of their biggest names could be looking for a new job. The once-mighty Communist Party would be reduced to fringe status of four or five deputies. And centrist Francois Bayrou would command a party with just half a dozen lawmakers.
"We must unite. Politics is a collective fight," the Socialists' Segolene Royal said in a message to a party candidate on Wednesday. "When you hear that according to the opinion polls, 80 per cent of the seats will go to Sarkozy's people, we must react. On Sunday, the country must wake up!"
Sarkozy, in his own message to supporters, declared a majority in the Assembly was "essential for carrying out the task" that he said was mandated to him by the presidential election. He plans to call a special session of Parliament in July and August to debate a series of planned laws that are central to his manifesto. They include removing taxes on overtime pay, relief on mortgage interest payments, tougher rules on immigration and overhaul of France's university system.
On May 6, Sarkozy rode to triumph in a hard-fought campaign against Royal, picking up 57 per cent of the vote against her 43 per cent. Given Sarkozy's hard-nosed reputation as Interior Minister, the country braced for radicalism and a backlash by trade unions and angry youths in the high-immigration suburban housing estates.
Since then, though, Sarkozy has taken his critics quite by surprise, and in so doing gained the highest levels of support for any new President since Charles de Gaulle nearly half a century ago. He has put a verbal emphasis on inclusiveness and moderation and named a Government that features the Socialist Bernard Kouchner as Foreign Minister as well as seven women.
Opponents, though, say it is only a ploy aimed at wooing wavering voters for the National Assembly elections, and dourly forecast that the ugly, hardline Sarkozy will be revealed afterwards.
The daily Le Monde, which spoke out against Sarkozy before his election, has softened its attacks, paying tribute to his "direct style, communication skills, his active role on every front, whether at home or abroad, and his clear will to implement the reforms he has promised".
But, it said, if the predicted "blue wave" unfurled, "Nicolas Sarkozy will exercise undivided power, which is not balanced by a real counterweight".
The first round of the vote is followed by a runoff on June 17 in constituencies where no candidate has taken more than 50 per cent of the vote. One feature of interest is how the new Cabinet members will fare.
Prime Minister Francois Fillon has declared that ministers who lose their seats in the National Assembly will be excluded from Government - an innovation that responds to swelling criticism of the tradition whereby unelected technocrats are often parachuted into ministerial jobs.
A tough fight could be in the offing in Bordeaux for Environment Minister Alain Juppe, a powerful UMP "baron" who has re-emerged from political exile after being temporarily stripped of his civic rights in a corruption scandal.
