Fear of change splits France

From the motorway to Toulouse, you get a view of the "medieval" city of Carcassonne. It stands on a hillside, with its turrets and walls intact, seemingly unchanged for centuries.

That is not the only Carcassonne, however. Further down in the valley, there is another Carcassonne, full of office blocks, shopping malls and light-engineering factories.

Similar towns with split identities are found all over France - not one country but a series of countries superimposed on one another.

Which of the many Frances will vote "non" in the referendum on the European Union constitution today?

Could a coalition of the convinced, the confused and undecided push the "oui" vote over the 50 per cent mark?

The polls opened at 6pm NZT. First exit polls projecting the result are expected when the last polling stations close at 8am today. An official estimate for the result is due sometime after 9am.

One of the four final opinion polls published on Saturday - polling was banned in the last 24 hours of the campaign - suggested that the "yes" camp might be staging a late rally. The CSA poll showed only a 52 to 48 per cent lead for a "no" vote.

However, three other polls published on Saturday put the "non" vote at 55 or 56 per cent and gaining. If those polls are right, even with one in five voters undecided until the last days, it is difficult to see how the "oui" side can win.

Argument rages over how serious a blow that would be to the EU.

Although some EU leaders will insist on going ahead with the ratification process in other countries, it is clear that a French "non" would kill this constitutional treaty.

At the very least, the EU will be left struggling to run its 25-nation (soon to be 27) "real Europe" with institutions little changed from the cosy, six-nation "little Europe" of the 1950s and 1960s. At the worst, the open-borders, free-trade philosophy on which, successively, the EEC, EC and EU have been based for 47 years could be in jeopardy.

President Jacques Chirac has said he would not quit but he would be likely to respond to a "no" vote by axing unpopular Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin. Interior Minister Dominique de Villepin, a trusted ally, leads the race to replace him.

Today's "non" - if it is "non" - will be a rejection of the treaty by the centre-left, the France of Francois Mitterrand, civil servants, public sector workers, teachers, students and left-wing intellectuals.

It will also be a rejection, not just of this constitution, but of the ideas - free trade, free movement, open competition - on which the EU was founded (ideas formulated by two great Frenchmen, Jean Monnet and Robert Schuman).

The permanently "angry" third of the electorate that habitually votes for the extremes of right and left, from the National Front to the Trotskyists, has always detested the EU. They were going to vote "no" from the start. The third of voters who go for centre-right parties - Chirac's political family - has been solid behind "oui" (75 to 80 per cent).

The swing electorate is the Socialist and Green vote of the centre-left.

The leading figures in both parties, with one notable exception, have campaigned for a "oui". However, over 50 per cent of Socialist voters and over 70 per cent of Green voters say that they will reject the treaty.

If you ask them why, they point to the language in the third part of the constitution, the language of "fair and free competition", "open markets" and free movement of goods, people and capital.

This, they say, is a recipe for "ultra-liberalism", or capitalism that will export jobs to eastern Europe, flood France with Polish plumbers and destroy public services.


In fact, the third part of the treaty, on which these arguments are based, is almost entirely the old gospel of Europe, copied word for word from the 1957 Treaty of Rome. If you push them, many French centre-left voters are evidently unaware of this fact.

The centre-left electorate that will decide the outcome is well-educated and in no particular pain. It is one that benefits from the high staffing and generous social benefits in the public sector.

As in most recent French revolutions, it will be a rather selfish, "conservative" revolution rooted in fear of change.

WHAT'S NEXT

The European Union constitution will probably be doomed if France votes "No" by a wide margin.

If the Netherlands also votes "No" on Wednesday, the charter would almost certainly be beyond rescue, but other member states might carry on the ratification process.

A French "Yes" would bring huge relief to the treaty's supporters, even if Dutch voters reject the charter days later. If that were the case, the Dutch might be persuaded to vote again once other countries approved it.

A narrow French "No" might also open the possibility of a re-run. That is improbable in the case of a "No" in both countries.

A French "No" followed by a Dutch "Yes" would help keep the treaty alive, but is considered unlikely.

THE 'YES' CAMP

The constitution will replace voting rules that were designed for a smaller bloc and will make decision-making easier in the EU after its enlargement to 25 member states.

The constitution will increase Europe's influence in world affairs, strengthening the EU's common foreign and defence policy.

The constitution strengthens social policy in the bloc.

The constitution that has been drawn up was the best compromise possible.

The constitution will increase France's voting weight.

THE 'NO' CAMP

The charter enshrines an "ultra-liberal" economic model which puts market interests ahead of social concerns. It does not protect workers enough and will drive firms out of France to states with lower wages and costs in eastern Europe.

On defence, the constitution makes the EU dependent on Nato, and therefore the US.

French influence will decline inside the bloc as the constitution strips countries of more sovereign rights and moves power to Brussels.


- INDEPENDENT, additional reporting Reuters