Experts warn of more attacks

JAKARTA - With Islamic militant groups attracting more young men radicalised by poverty and drawn to the glory of Muslim martyrdom, suicide attacks - once unknown in Asia - could become a regular threat.

Analysts around the world expressed little surprise at the car bomb attack that ripped through the luxury JW Marriott Hotel in the Indonesian capital, Jakarta, on Tuesday, killing up to 16 people and wounding around 150, and voiced suspicion the shadowy Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) Muslim network was to blame.

"From a distance, this bears all the hallmarks of Jemaah Islamiyah," said David Wright-Neville, former senior terrorism adviser to Australia's Office of National Assessments.

The attack highlighted the difficulty police in the region face in countering terror since the October 2002 strikes in Bali that killed 202 people, mostly Westerners, he said.

"Do I think this is JI? Yes," said Zachary Abuza, an expert in terrorism and security in southeast Asia at Simmons College in Boston. "There is no other organisation in Indonesia that has the technical capacity to pull off an attack of that size and complexity."

Wright-Neville agreed, referring to communications in recent months that indicated the organisation regarded as the Asian arm of Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network was highly operational even after arrests of more than 30 people over the Bali bombs.

"Chatter over the last couple of months indicates that the organisation remains - at a senior level - very intact and dispersed and able more freely to plan and initiate," said Wright-Neville, now at the Monash Global Terrorism Research Unit in Melbourne, Australia.

The bomb exploded on the same day as suspected JI leader, cleric Abu Bakar Bashir, spoke in his trial for treason in Jakarta.

Police have stressed the sophisticated planning and know-how that went into the Bali bombing, and the terror experts said similar capabilities were needed for the Marriott attack.

Few militants in the region are believed to have such ability, but wanted JI operations chief and senior al Qaeda member Hambali, an Indonesian, is one of them, experts say.

The terrorism experts said reports that a suicide bomber drove the car that exploded into the Marriott's lobby were particularly disturbing in terms of the increasing radicalisation of militants in Asia.

"This is really unusual," said Abuza. Suicide bombings have long been extremely rare in southeast Asia, which is known for its moderate Islamic beliefs.

"But after Paddy's Bar the psychological threshold for suicide bombing has been broken," he said, referring to the suicide bomber who walked into one of the two Bali nightclubs and blew himself up. "It is now part of their modus operandi, part of their arsenal.

"These are just a handful of very radical individuals," he said, citing the impact of television news broadcasts on the Middle East and on al Qaeda by the Al Jazeera channel.

"People are learning of the 'glory' of suicide and it becomes attractive.

"It is really troubling that this has spread so far into this region and I think this will be part of their arsenal from now on.

"Not on a regular basis but this will inspire others to do the same."

Wright-Neville agreed that more such attacks were now increasingly likely and would not necessarily be confined to Islamic militants.

"This is the beginning of a longer trend and a more common occurrence. The Middle East is instructive as to how struggle will be carried on elsewhere."

Islam was evolving in the region, he said, with more radicals looking for inspiration to the extremist Wahabi beliefs of many in Saudi Arabia and of bin Laden and with those fighting terror battling the symptoms but failing to tackle its roots in poverty.

"Look at who has been arrested so far. Most were footsoldiers, not those with real knowledge of operations" said Abuza. "There are about a dozen known operatives with leadership clout, who know where the money and the safehouses are, who know how to plan and execute attacks."

Clive Williams, director of terrorism studies at the Australian National University, said: "It foreshadows that further attacks are likely. I think they've got the capability to strike elsewhere in the region, particularly, say, in Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia and possibly Singapore."

The bombing was the fifth and the most deadly in Indonesia this year.

"Intelligence agencies have warned for months now of the possibility of attacks and the bulk of JI remains at large," said Andrew Tan of the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies in Singapore.

Rohan Gunaratna, another fellow at the Singapore-based strategic studies institute, said Islamist militants were angry over the prosecutions for the Bali bombing. He said JI terrorists wanted to retaliate to "show their power", and would strike at other countries if security agencies failed to prevent them.

Half a dozen suspected JI members were detained in Thailand in June and July on suspicion of planning to bomb Western embassies and the beach resorts of Pattaya and Phuket. Jemaah Islamiyah has vowed to establish an Islamic state across the Malay archipelago, encompassing Indonesia, the southern Philippines, Brunei, Singapore, Malaysia and southern Thailand.

Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri's greatest hope of defeating the militants is the revulsion felt among the majority - who follow a moderate form of Islam - at the carnage in Bali and the bombers' claims to be defenders of the faith.

Robert Hefner, an author on Indonesian Islam based at Boston University, said: "At their best, the bombers are seen by most more militant Muslims as misguided romantics. At their worst - and this is the mainstream view in moderate ranks - they're seen as people who did great damage to Indonesia and the interests of Indonesian Islam."

Andrew MacIntyre, an expert in Indonesian affairs at the ANU, said the blast would outrage Indonesians. It could help harden opinion against extremists.

"I think the net effect of this will be to further strengthen the effect that was triggered by the Bali bombing, namely forcing the Indonesian electorate and the Indonesian political elite to come to grips with the fact there is a serious problem with extremists.

"This is going to mobilise the middle of Indonesian public opinion, the bulk of people for whom the militants do not speak."

- AGENCIES