Experts predict 70pc likelihood of WMD attack in decade

WASHINGTON - There is a 70 per cent risk of an attack somewhere in the world with a weapon of mass destruction in the next decade, arms experts predict in a survey.

They also said up to five more nations are likely to acquire nuclear weapons within 10 years.

The survey, conducted by United States Senate foreign relations committee chairman Richard Lugar, describes a threat that is "real and increasing over time" and endorses much greater funding for non-proliferation programmes.

"Even if we succeed spectacularly at building democracy around the world, bringing stability to failed states and spreading economic opportunity broadly, we will not be secure from the actions of small, disaffected groups that acquire weapons of mass destruction," said the Republican senator in a preface to the survey.

"Everything is at risk if we fail in this area."

The survey records the views of 85, mostly US, experts, including the Bush Administration's top non-proliferation official, Robert Joseph, and such former Republican and Democratic officials as John Wolf, James Woolsey, William Burns, Donald Gregg, Strobe Talbott and Robert Einhorn.

The experts estimate the risk of a nuclear attack to be 16.4 per cent over the next five years and 29.2 per cent over the next decade.

Asked to consider the possibility of a nuclear, biological, chemical or radiological (dirty bomb) attack on any nation, they put the chance of one of the four at 50 per cent over five years and 70 per cent over 10 years.

A Lugar aide who oversaw the survey said 70 per cent was "a very conservative estimate".

An attack with a dirty bomb, combining a conventional explosive such as dynamite with radioactive material, is seen as most likely, with a risk of 40 per cent over the next decade.

The survey report also says "there was a broad agreement within the [experts'] group that nuclear weapons will proliferate to new countries in the coming years".

Large majorities judged that one or two more nations would acquire nuclear weapons within five years and two to five would acquire them during the next decade.

At present there are five declared nuclear states - the US, Russia, Britain, France and China. Three others - India, Pakistan and Israel - are understood to have nuclear arms. North Korea recently announced it has nuclear weapons.

Iran has a nuclear programme believed by the US and others to be aimed at producing weapons.

- REUTERS