European feet start tapping as US leads the war dance

By CATHERINE FIELD Herald correspondent

PARIS - European leaders are shifting position as the United States-Iraq standoff intensifies, discreetly preparing the public to accept the inevitability of a strike to oust Saddam Hussein.

Until yesterday, the only European nation that, by all appearances, fully endorsed President George W. Bush's war aims was Britain. Prime Minister Tony Blair conferred with Bush last weekend on the crisis.

Now Spain has told the US it would support an attack even without a United Nations resolution.

A number of European Governments are starting to send signals that they could endorse a US-led invasion to kick out Saddam.

That does not mean - yet - that these countries would take part in such an operation. And their endorsement is tied to several conditions: that concrete proof is published to back allegations that Saddam is a major threat; that UN weapons inspectors be allowed to return to Iraq, if only for a short period; and that the UN authorise any punitive operation.

Despite that, the change in mood is unmistakable.

Bulgaria and Portugal yesterday spoke out in support of US aims.

Bulgarian Foreign Minister Solomon Passy said he believed the UN Security Council could reach at least a large majority, if not a consensus, on a resolution on Iraq.

Portuguese Foreign Minister Antonio Martins da Cruz said: "We believe it is a mistake some allies are doing - blaming the US. We need to blame Iraq. Iraq is not respecting UN resolutions."

French President Jacques Chirac set the ball rolling this week with the suggestion that Baghdad be given a three-week ultimatum to allow weapons inspectors unrestricted access.

After that, the UN could authorise force if necessary.

Chirac's move was followed by an informal meeting in Sardinia, hosted by Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, that gathered the conservative leaders of France, Italy, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Portugal and Spain.

They also declared that Saddam had to give inspectors unconditional access.

Bush was to address the UN General Assembly today, spelling out his strategy for dealing with Iraq.

The only major European holdout is Germany. Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who has said his country will refuse to join any military intervention against Iraq, is now paying the price for this, in US anger - his stance has been publicly criticised by the US Ambassador in Berlin - and in fierce criticism from the rightwing press.

Schroeder, head of a Social Democrat-Green coalition, is in the throes of campaigning for legislative elections on September 22, and polls show he is neck-and-neck with the conservative opposition.

What is causing the shift? One reason is the change in Europe's political map. Over the past couple of years, a series of elections has placed almost all of continental Europe in the hands of conservatives, whose instinct is to support Bush.

But the second reason is self-interest. France, for all its independence, has always kept a close eye on where the political flow is heading and closely weighed whether it is in its interest to take part in it or stay on the sidelines.

In the 1991 Gulf War, for instance, it committed troops to the US-led military buildup and tried - right up to the very last minute, and to the intense annoyance of its allies - to get Saddam to agree to a diplomatic solution.

Thierry de Montbrial, director of the French Institute for International Relations, said France would gain nothing by trying to block an operation by the prime force in the Western world, or even by staying on the sideline.

"France is taking care not to be seen opposing [a US strike] systematically," he said.

"In any case, it does not have the means to oppose it. The French position is that if Baghdad refuses to let the UN inspectors back in, the Security Council will have no choice other than to authorise military action."

There is still a long way to go before European countries will sign up to a US offensive.

Public opposition to the operation is high and Bush is widely viewed across Europe as a neophyte in foreign affairs who, at the urgings of hardliners in his entourage, could lead the US armed forces into a Middle East quagmire.

There is also much dismay at his unquestioning support for Israel - a state that, like Iraq, is a chronic source of regional instability, has repeatedly scorned UN resolutions and already has weapons of mass destruction.

"He [Blair] cannot change any position in Washington," said German conservative Euro MP Elmar Brok. "He can only follow what Washington does."

Even though most Europeans agree with Americans that Saddam is an evil menace, Blair and Bush will have to come up with a convincing stack of evidence to prove that he has amassed biological or chemical weapons or is close to gaining nuclear capability.

Without public support or the shield of UN authorisation, Europe's role in a US operation to unseat Saddam could be limited to mere shirt-holding, such as diplomatic or logistical support.

And this could only strengthen stereotyped perceptions on either side of the Atlantic.

General Gustav Hagglund, chairman of the European Union's Military Committee, said: "Right now the US is enjoying the sense of power it has, and there is no great perceived need for working in co-operation with others towards a common goal, since the Americans know they can react effectively alone.

"To the American mind, the Europeans are forever shilly-shallying around and not getting much done."

Further reading
Feature: War with Iraq

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