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PARIS - Leaders will bid a polite but tear-free farewell to George W. Bush in his valedictory tour of Europe this week, looking beyond his ebbing presidency and to his successor.
The most disliked President in the history of United States-European relations will kick off his eight-day trip at a summit tomorrow and Wednesday with leaders of the 27-nation European Union in Slovenia.
He then heads for Germany, where he will join commemorations for the 60th anniversaries of the Berlin Airlift and the launch of the Marshall Plan, and flies to Italy, France and Britain. On June 16, he wraps up the trip in Belfast, Northern Ireland, where he will put the seal on the province's devolution agreement, the outcome of the peace process backed by his presidency. Positive memories of Bush are rare in Europe.
His image is darkly stained by the Iraq War, his near-destruction of the Kyoto Protocol and his inaction on the Middle East.
Guantanamo Bay, the US rejection of the International Criminal Court and the tensions with Russia over an anti-missile shield also stir deep resentment. A survey published last week by Britain's Daily Telegraph said just 27 per cent of people questioned in Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Russia thought the US was a "force for good" in the world. A huge 43 per cent described it as a "force for evil".
Against this background, Michael Emerson of the Centre for European Policy Studies think tank, says Bush will get a polite reception in his final European tour, but nothing more.
"He is running around looking for his legacy," Emerson told the Herald. "As far as Brussels is concerned, he might as well buy a box of chocolates and move on."
Behind the photo-ops, though, senior officials will be doing the spade work on dossiers that will endure after Bush leaves the Oval Office next January, said Emerson.
These include friction over Iran's nuclear programme, rows over trade, how to strengthen the fight against the Taleban in Afghanistan and grappling for a way forward on tackling global warming.
Coupled to the relief in Europe that the Bush era is drawing to a close is the speculation over which of the two rivals, Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain, will be the best man to succeed him.
It is fair to say that, around Europe, the clear leader in the popularity stakes is Obama, whose fresh appeal, lofty ideals, mastery of oratory and rise above prejudice have captured many hearts. Some analysts warn that he is fuzzier in foreign relations than McCain and worry about his protectionist-sounding commitments on trade.
Others say that whoever is the next US President will inherit deeply entrenched problems - the Iraq War, global warming, the Middle East. To overcome them will require nurturing of domestic opinion and overcoming resistance by powerful lobbies, and this will take time.
Europeans will welcome a warmer tone to their relationship with the world's superpower after Bush. But they will adopt a wait-and-see approach over whether this also leads to a change in substance. "Regardless who gets elected President in November, the change is not going to be as earth-shattering as people expect," Germany's Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, commented.
"There is a risk that the next US President will assume that the departure of George W. Bush will automatically make the Europeans rally in support of American policies around the world," says Tomas Valasek of the Centre for European Reform. "Such an assumption could lead to bitter disappointment in Washington."
