Europe trembles in face of terror

By PETER GRAFF

LONDON - If it was Islamist militants who struck out of the blue in Madrid last week, then it will dash hopes that Western security forces have blunted the threat from al Qaeda since September 11 and show all Europe is at risk.

Despite billions of dollars spent tracking Islamic radicals over the past 30 months, despite destroying their Afghan bases and putting thousands of agents on the streets, Western spies heard not a trace of "chatter" from Muslim militants before the bombers killed 200 rail commuters, security analysts said.

While responsibility remained unclear for the worst guerrilla attack on a European city, a claim from a purported al Qaeda ally and the arrests of three Arabs caused Spain to play down early accusations against Basque separatists.

The broader implication, experts say, is that security is still worse - perhaps far worse - than policymakers feared, even in countries such as Spain with experience of dealing robustly with political violence and which were well aware their support for United States policy in Afghanistan and Iraq had made them targets.

There is little the authorities can do now to make the public safer, analysts say, apart from continuing with existing tactics - and hoping they have more success next time.

"I wouldn't say that they were complacent about it. Everybody has been expecting this. But they were just sort of hoping that it wouldn't happen. This is the worst nightmare," said Tim Ripley, of the Centre of Defence and International Security Studies at Britain's University of Lancaster.

"Not only are security chiefs very worried about not knowing what to do next, but the general public know that."

For exactly 2 1/2 years, until March 11, authorities in the West thought they had reason to be proud.

Since September 11, 2001, Islamic radicals had struck in Indonesia, Turkey, Kenya, Saudi Arabia and Morocco, often at targets linked to Western interests, from American workers to Australian or Israeli tourists and a British consulate.

Russia and postwar Iraq have also been killing fields for the bombers.

But in the West itself, any serious strikes were thwarted. Cells were infiltrated, phones tapped and leaders jailed.

No one would admit to being complacent, but until last week there was a strong feeling that an unprecedented global security effort was proving effective.

Although security services all say they expected an attack eventually, many thought that when it did come they would at least have a clue in advance.

The absence of any "chatter" - from email monitoring, telephone tapping and other spying - that pointed to Islamic radicals was one reason the authorities so quickly pointed the finger at Basque separatists, an older, better-understood foe.

Worse, there are no obvious answers as to what to do next. After September 11 the agenda was clear: improve airline security, commit more resources to monitoring known extremists and destroy al Qaeda's bases in Afghanistan.

But commuter railways, like those attacked in Spain, are all but impossible to protect with the sort of security used at airports. And there is no overseas regime, such as the Taleban in Afghanistan, that can now be punished for supporting al Qaeda.

The absence of advance clues despite all efforts to snoop was a reminder of how elusive al Qaeda - or like-minded imitators - could be, said Marco Vicenzino of the Washington office of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

"They don't need to communicate with headquarters. They've been probably living there for a long time. They mix into the society they live in. They can scout targets, plan in secret. And then: Bam! They strike. That's al Qaeda and its affiliates."

The fear now is of a rapid spread of attacks throughout Europe.

Muslims in Spain

* Police have arrested three Moroccans and two Indians over the bombings.

* Eight Muslims were among the dead in last week's blasts.

* There are an estimated 500,000 Muslims in Spain.

* For seven centuries Muslims from North Africa occupied most of the Iberian Peninsula.

* Before they were driven out in 1492, they built mosques - including one of the world's biggest, in Cordoba - and tolerated Judaism and other religions.

- REUTERS