Europe starts to thaw over opposition to looming battle

By CATHERINE FIELD

PARIS - The political mood in the European Union has started to swing slightly towards favouring, or at least acquiescing in, a war with Iraq in the wake of a report by the United Nations weapons inspectors that raised fresh questions about Saddam Hussein's armaments programme.

A statement by EU Foreign Ministers yesterday papered over deep divisions on Iraq, laying the responsibility on the Iraqi President by saying he had a "final opportunity" to avoid war by cooperating with the UN team, and welcoming the inspectors' intention "to continue and intensify their operations."

But there was no timetable for completing the inspections or any reference to a military threat to punish Iraq if it fails to comply.

A diplomat in Brussels said the communique was a classic exercise in seeking out "the lowest common denominator," a bland position on which all could agree, despite their differences.

Behind the scenes, the 15 EU nations have split into three camps.

Five countries enthusiastically or broadly back the United States: Britain, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and Denmark.

Six countries oppose the US, either fully or partially: Germany, France, Greece, Austria, Belgium and Luxembourg.

The other four are historically neutral or have not adopted any clear position: Ireland, Sweden, Portugal and Finland.

But the lines between the first two camps are blurred. They have shifted backwards and forwards in the past six months - and are likely to move again as the diplomatic phase of this crisis reaches its peak and countries weigh the advantages or disadvantages of being part of the US military lineup.

Initially, the European public fretted over President George W. Bush's "cowboy" approach to international politics, which buoyed the anti-war camp. But Tuesday's gloomy report to the UN Security Council by chief weapons inspector Hans Blix, which detailed a long list of Iraq's failures to provide information on its armaments programme or raised suspicions that it had been routinely violating parts of the embargo against it, gave fresh support to the pro-US group.

Britain is taking the most hawkish line, being the only country that has committed troops to any US-led war on Iraq.

British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said yesterday that the UN report showed that Iraq cooperation was a "charade" and proof that Baghdad was in "further material breach" of UN resolutions. Even so, he has joined his EU allies in saying the inspectors should be given more time, adding for good measure that "war is not inevitable".

That approach is reassuring for the conservative Governments in Spain and Italy, who favour having the fig leaf of international support if they join the military option. And it could be decisive with waverers Belgium and France, who do not want to be left out if there is a move towards a broad anti-Iraqi coalition.

"If they [the Iraqis] don't respond favourably to the demands of the EU, I think it means ... that they manifestly have something to hide, that they have a dangerous agenda, and that they constitute a danger to international security," said Belgian Foreign Minister Louis Michel.

At the anti-war extreme are Germany and Greece, who have declared their opposition in principle to taking part in any strikes.

Both carry clout through the lottery of the diplomatic calendar: Germany takes over the presidency of the UN Security Council on February 1, joining Britain and France, who are permanent members and Spain, a non-permanent member. Greece is president of the EU, having taking over the helm for six months on January 1.

How the EU countries respond to the Iraqi crisis has resounding consequences not just for the goal of forging a single European stance on foreign policy.

It will also reverberate in Washington and the Middle East, and could even determine the success of the operation.

The EU is generally liked in Arab and Muslim countries, where it is praised for its development aid and its perceived sympathy for the Palestinian cause, in contrast to Washington's support for Israel.

If a majority of EU countries join the war effort, and if the campaign gets the diplomatic seal of approval from the EU as an institution, that will do a lot to ease hostility in these nations. It could also encourage Turkey, which is desperate to join the EU, to let the US deploy ground troops on its soil, thus threatening Iraq with a pincer movement from the north and the south.

Herald feature: Iraq

January 28, 2003: