EU sanctions to go as carrot for Kostunica

PARIS - The European Union today will start to lift sanctions against Yugoslavia after the fall of Europe's last dictator, Communist-turned-nationalist Slobodan Milosevic.

The move will be made at a Foreign Ministers meeting in Luxembourg, signalling the West's hope that Yugoslavia has now returned to the fold of civilised nations.

"It is a very, very clear sign of our wish to start a new relationship with a democratic Yugoslavia," the EU's high representative for foreign and security policy, Javier Solana, said.

But a shadow hangs over the celebrations - that of Milosevic himself. Defeated in the polls, overthrown by a peoples revolt, he still retains enormous powers to meddle.

The sanctions list amounts to half a dozen measures that sought to clamp the jugular of the Yugoslav economy in punishment for Milosevic's bloody adventurism in Croatia, Bosnia-Hercegovina and Kosovo.

These general measures, such as an export ban on oil sales, a bar on flights into EU airports by the Yugoslav airline JAT, a freeze on assets held by the Belgrade Government and on EU investments in Serbia, are likely to be lifted quickly.

Other possible contenders are an end to the freeze on export credits to the private sector.

Sanctions that will remain in place are a visa ban applying to several hundred people who were at the top of the old regime in Belgrade, as well as an arms embargo.

The United Nations has also imposed an arms embargo against Yugoslavia, while the United States' measures have been mainly economic, including a ban on trade with Serbia and blocking Yugoslav access to World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF).

As the big economic power on Yugoslavia's doorstep, and a pole of stability that is yearningly sought by almost every other state in the former Communist Europe, the EU wields enormous influence in whether Milosevic's successor, Vojislav Kostunica, will gain international acceptance.

Diplomatic sources in Paris said Kostunica's entourage had been in close telephone contact with the French Government throughout last week's denouement, virtually dictating the messages of support they wanted to hear from France, the current president of the EU, from Britain and Brussels.

"The daily contact helped us to avoid making statements that could have allowed Milosevic to portray him as a Nato puppet," said one source.

After Kostunica declared himself President, French head of state Jacques Chirac swiftly invited him to attend an informal EU summit next weekend.

Kostunica will also be invited to a summit in Zagreb, the Croatian capital, on November 24-25, a gathering of EU and western Balkan leaders.

But beyond these helpful shows of support, no-one in Western Europe doubts the scale of the task ahead. Serbia, a land with a history of dictatorship, a persecution complex and a ruined economy, will not take the easy path to stable democracy.

Charles Radcliffe of the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank, suspects that there may be only a brief honeymoon between Kostunica and the West.

"In a sense he's the real nationalist, because he actually believes in it, whereas Milosevic just used it as a tactic," said Radcliffe.

"He's going to be prickly to deal with. The Serbs do have a case and people will have to listen ... and on policy issues, he's going to be a tough negotiating partner."

It would have been far easier for Kostunica if Milosevic were out of the picture, either by death or exile.

But Milosevic has declared he wants to stay in Yugoslavia, rebuild his party and eventually return to politics.

Milosevic's allies say they are confident they can form the next federal Yugoslav Government, something their opponents say will sink any chance of returning the country to the heart of the international community.

Kostunica has painted himself into a corner by declaring his Serb nationalist credentials during the election campaign.

He has already said he will refuse to hand Milosevic to the United Nations war crimes tribunal in The Hague.

The court has already indicted Milosevic for atrocities committed in Kosovo and its chief prosecutor, Carla Del Ponte, says he will be charged very soon with genocide in Bosnia and Croatia.

It will be hard for Kostunica to claim Western help, especially the Marshall Plan-style influx of credit that it needs to rebuild its economy, if he insists on harbouring an indicted war criminal.

Another sore point will be Kosovo and Montenegro, the two rump pieces of the Yugoslav federation that, during the Milosevic era, were desperate to quit. Kostunica is bound to oppose any breakaway. However, Western influence may buy time, encouraging local leaders to take a wait-and-see approach that could help Kostunica consolidate democracy in Belgrade.

In Belgrade, Kostunica was due to attend a meeting of the Serb Parliament today, still dominated by his predecessor's allies. Supporters of the new federal Administration have warned that if Serb lawmakers attempt to maintain control of state institutions, they will bring the people back on to the streets.

"Pressure must be exerted," said Velja Ilic, the Mayor of Cacak, whose townspeople were the most radical among the protesters who stormed the federal Parliament.

As a first step, Kostunica's backers want to see Interior Minister Vlajko Stojiljkovic sacked, but their ultimate goal is to get the Parliament dissolved and fresh elections called.

Such a move could probably only come from Serb President Milan Milutinovic, who has been indicted for war crimes.

- HERALD CORRESPONDENT, REUTERS

Herald Online feature: Revolution in Yugoslavia

International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia

Serbian Ministry of Information

Serbian Radio - Free B92

Otpor: Serbian Student Resistance Movement