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The equine influenza (EI) outbreak, which has shut down the multi-billion dollar Australian racing industry, has spread from NSW to Queensland but Victorian authorities are confident that the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival will not be affected.
Although no racehorse has tested positive to EI, race meetings across the country were cancelled yesterday and a 72-hour order against the movement of horses was put in force, with that order is due to expire on Tuesday afternoon.
The first case of EI in Australia was found in a stallion at Sydney's Eastern Creek quarantine station which was immediately locked down on Thursday.
But on Friday recreational horses stabled at Centennial Park, in Sydney's east, were found to be suffering from clinical symptoms.
Centennial Park is near Randwick Racecourse where 700 thoroughbreds are trained.
Racing NSW chief executive Peter V'Landys said today it was crucial people adhered to the protocols regarding horse movement.
He said it was almost certain the 72-hour ban would be extended in NSW when government and racing officials met tomorrow.
"If people stop moving horses throughout the state, the quicker this can burn itself out," Mr V'Landys said.
"Horses that left Centennial Park and went to Maitland infected other horses with cases now found at Parkes, Moombi, Berry, Wilberforce, Cattai and Wyong.
"Tests are still being done to determine whether the strain of the virus is the same as the one found in the stallion at Eastern Creek."
While 47 cases of EI had been confirmed tonight, the count has unofficially topped 160.
The veterinarian in charge of horses at Sydney's Centennial Parklands Equestrian Centre, Dr Tim Roberts, said almost every horse at the complex had the virus.
Dr Roberts said once the first horse tested positive it was impossible to halt the spread of the disease at the centre.
"You can see it clinically and 161 of the 165 horses have it," Dr Roberts said.
"It spreads like wildfire."
Dr Roberts has previous experience with the disease in South Africa where an outbreak of EI caused racing to shut down for three months in the 1980s.
Queensland authorities expect to confirm within days whether three horses, which have returned positive results to preliminary tests, have EI.
The three NSW horses were among 300 taking part in the equestrian world cup qualifier in Warwick, in Queensland's south, yesterday.
As the implications of the outbreak were assessed state by state, a difference of opinion has emerged between Victorian authorities and Federal Agriculture Minister Peter McGauran.
Racing Victoria Limited (RVL) said it was confident horses will be back on the track in that state by the weekend, if not sooner.
But Mr McGauran said a miracle was needed if racing was to resume before next Saturday.
"If we're racing next Saturday, then we should all breathe a sigh of relief," Mr McGauran said.
"If there's any racing in Australia before then, it will be a minor miracle."
RVL chairman Graeme Duff said a lockdown of racing stables, in force since yesterday morning, will end at 5pm (7pm NZT) on Tuesday, technically allowing a resumption of training and racing.
"We are on target to reach a point on Wednesday that we'll be racing," Mr Duff said.
"As it stands now, next Saturday's meeting will definitely be held."
RVL chief executive Stephen Allanson dismissed suggestions that the Melbourne Cup carnival might be affected.
He said there was no reason to believe that any major race would suffer as a result of the virus.
He said that while contingency plans existed, he had not contemplated their implementation.
"There is no evidence that the carnival will be affected," Mr Allanson said.
Unlike in Sydney, where horses are still permitted to train on racetracks, all racecourse training in Victoria was closed and horses stabled on racecourses must remain within their barns.
Trainer Lee Freedman, who is able to continue training on his private track on the Mornington Peninsula, said racing could return to normal in Victoria very quickly.
"Three or four days isn't going to make much difference," Mr Freedman said.
"But it's going to be a massive juggling act if it goes on for too long."
While RVL's confidence in the measures it has put in place was high, overseas trainers with runners entered for the major spring races were taking a more wary approach.
Hong Kong trainer John Moore has postponed plans to send his top-line galloper Viva Pataca to Melbourne.
The horse, one of the top chances for the W S Cox Plate, was due to arrive tomorrow but Moore will wait another week to assess the situation.
For British and European trainers, the issue wasn't as critical.
EI was endemic to most European countries where trainers have learned to live with the virus.
In the breeding industry the situation is critical with the stud season due to commence next weekend.
Some 30,000 thoroughbred mares were served during the 15-week season.
While some mares were already on the same farm as their intended partner, the vast majority are normally shipped in.
After foaling, they were usually served again within two weeks.
Leading NSW studmaster John Messara said 75 per cent of the mares due to be served at his Arrowfield Stud came from outside.
"If the breeding season is delayed for any length of time it will have a devastating effect on the foal crop which will translate to the yearling sales," Mr Messara said.
"It will affect racing for at least two to three years."
The cost to the NSW racing industry was estimated to be around $40 million in TAB turnover for the first 72 hours of the crisis.
- AAP
