Richard Spencer: Bush must stand by loyal Asians

Not since the hordes were at the gates of Europe, and the odd wigwam was all that disturbed the Texas grasslands, has anyone paid much attention to what the Mongolian people think.

Now Mongolia is again on the itinerary of world leaders - well, the Texan one, anyway. And when George W. Bush became the first American President to visit Ulan Bator this week, it was not before time.

This is not because the 2.6 million Mongolians are once again about to rise up and challenge the West for dominance. There is no "go out" policy for the steppe's nomadic yak herdsmen, no multi-fold increase in expenditure on missiles, or even arrows. No, Bush was keen to hear the wisdom that comes from a diet of fatty mutton and fermented mare's milk, because that's what's going on a day's ride south on the Transmongolian Express, in Beijing.

China has a population 500 times as big as Mongolia's, and, possibly for the first time in history, it is using it efficiently.

There's nothing wrong with that. To haul a billion people out of poverty is no small task, and it is remarkable that China is managing to do that. But it has consequences. One is that a lot of wealth times quite a few people works out as roughly equal to a bit of wealth times a lot of people.

That's the United States and China in a few years, if you hadn't guessed, and we might all be nervous about what happens then, when the American writ doesn't run so relatively large. As Bush drove out of Ulan Bator, he saw gentle valleys stretching out to the horizon with only a tent dotted here or there.

An average Chinese would look at this vast expanse and weep. If you take away mountains, deserts and Tibet, China's people feel a little squashed in their homeland. Mongolia's 2.6 million have the second-lowest population density in the world. They aren't going to invade, of course, but it's a tempting prospect for all those Chinese with money to invest. Thousands of Chinese already live in Ulan Bator, selling their cheap socks and saucepans, and the Mongolians know they serve a useful purpose.

When the Mongolians think of their lives since 1990, when they abandoned their masters in the Soviet Union without Mikhail Gorbachev even seeming to notice, this is what they ask: what was it for, and is anyone noticing now?

They have adopted free markets and seen their state industries collapse. They have free elections and a free spirit that makes any visit uplifting. But they need to eat. They will not have asked much of Bush. They are too proud, and prefer to let their throat-singers and fermented mare's milk do the talking, even if those who have endured these special treats sometimes remark that Genghis Khan's approach to international relations was more humane. But I hope Bush took in what he saw, and understood that the choice of being cherished by freedom-loving Americans or unfree but cash-rich Chinese can be a life-or-death issue. Bush was grateful for the moral support in Iraq offered by Mongolia in the form of 160 troops. He needs friends where he can get them. But Bush should make clear what he is offering in return.

"Our goal is to help others find their own voice," Bush said in his second-term inaugural speech, and the best way for him to answer his critics over Iraq is to consider how he is doing this, whether by trade or aid, in the small and weak countries.

America spends more in a month in Iraq than it has in 15 years in Mongolia. China is not so frightening. Its reforms are still partial, and troublesome, mainly for itself. It has made diplomatic ground while the United States struggles in its Iraqi mire, but it has few true friends. Its leader is deeply unsympathetic - not because Hu Jintao is bad, but because his extreme self-control means he cannot project his country's values, for good or ill, to the world.

But the loss of faith in America is frightening. And that loss is felt among many people in Asia who have long admired it but are more attracted to Chinese money than to Donald Rumsfeld's lectures. If Bush will stand by them when they need him, not just when he needs them, that faith is there for the taking once again.

* Richard Spencer writes for the Daily Telegraph in London.