Mike Moore: The tide is turning in the Middle East

Mike Moore

Opinion

Remember the Prague spring when a bright spark, a hopeful beam of enlightenment shone briefly from the shadows of Soviet occupation, illuminating the true nature of Communist imperialism?

Comparisons have been made with recent democratic movements in the Middle East - an Arab spring?

History is on the move in the Middle East; in the streets of Lebanon, with an Egyptian Presidential election, municipal elections in Saudi Arabia, and women gaining the right to vote in Kuwait, bringing the appointment of a female Minister. Afghanistan and Iraq have had elections where the turnout of voters puts to shame many Western democracies.

President Bush has signalled a fundamental change in American policy admitting in the past they favoured stability above democracy and achieved neither. Big call. Algeria elected a fundamentalist government which was quickly put down with Western support. Do you allow a government to take power which has said there will now be no more elections? There's a long road ahead. More dramatic, less reported, more organised and focused are the changes being introduced in the smaller nations of the Gulf.

I discussed these issues at a recent conference on democracy and free trade in plucky, lucky Qatar. The issues raised and arguments held were startling in their openness. Democracy means more than having a vote where the biggest tribe may win. Voting is a necessary, irreplaceable part of democracy. Voting decides who is in government and constitutions determine how they function.

A true franchise which eventually gave women the vote is relatively new. Women didn't have the vote in Britain when Churchill was first elected. Before full democracy in the West was achieved, institutions were built. Independent courts, professional civil service, property rights, free media, an active civil society - all these things make up a democracy. There are many different types, but all have in common the peaceful transfer of power through the will of the people. The best democracies have installed the concept of a loyal opposition - those who lose and those who seek power are loyal to the country and their opposition to the Government is not an act of treachery.

I was the Leader of the Opposition in New Zealand and said it was a splendid system when you were paid to overthrow the Government. This is hard to explain in some places.

How to handle minorities is a difficult path to navigate in many societies which have deep differences in religion, race, language, and customs. Some seek solutions to ensure a majority does not overwhelm minorities by embracing federal systems. Others seek proportional representation to ensure all opinions sit in Parliaments but proportional representation sometimes means candidates only mobilise their own communities, creating polarisation.

It's not easy. Clever little Mauritius has a unique way of ensuring that their large Muslim, Hindu, and smaller Christian communities are represented in their parliament. It's called "the best loser" system, not the most snappy or dignified title but it means that individuals from different communities must seek support from across all groups. A constitutional quota demands a certain number of members of parliament from each community.

Economic democracy demands property rights, transparency and competition. Political democracy demands institutions, impartial bureaucracies that give fair and fearless advice, and then implement the will of the people through their elected leaders.

The other leg in this tripod of political and economic democracy is social democracy to ensure people have other freedoms - from the fear of sickness, accidents, or old age. This creates the social mobility necessary in a modern society.

In the Middle East, the Gulf states will show the way, small laboratories of change. There is however, an elephant in the living room, one not seen at the Doha Conference. Small states face a challenge unique in modern history. No independent nation has recently faced a demographic reality where guest workers outnumber, many times, local citizens. A democratic solution based on a vote by everyone is a non-starter. In some places it would be like the United Kingdom having 300 million guest workers and letting them decide Britain's future. Sovereign nations will always preserve the right to decide who is a citizen. This issue strikes at the heart of national identity and social cohesion. That's why it is a global question of intense public and political controversy. There is no crisis, no big problem ... yet.

Don't forget the Prague Spring turned into a bitter winter. But two decades later they were free when the Soviet Empire imploded.

* Former Prime Minister Mike Moore was also head of the World Trade Organisation.