Is Asian regional integration set to take a historic step beyond East Asia to include Australia, New Zealand and India? Southeast Asian foreign ministers have been discussing this in a meeting in Cebu, in the Philippines.
Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi, who will chair the inaugural East Asia Summit in Malaysia in December, has not given a definitive answer to the question of who may be invited to attend.
The participants will definitely include the 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, and established dialogue partners from Northeast Asia - China, Japan and South Korea.
Badawi has only said the leaders of Australia, New Zealand and India will again be asked, as they were last year, to meet with their counterparts from Asean at their annual gathering in Kuala Lumpur. This will take place at the same time as the proposed East Asia Summit.
The participation of Australia, New Zealand and India in the wider summit has been under discussion for months. Their inclusion has been supported by Indonesia, Singapore and Japan, among others, but China seems wary, as does Malaysia.
Malaysian Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak suggested in a recent speech that the very title of the East Asia Summit meant it was logical to confine the participants to the heads of government of Asean, China, Japan and South Korea, who have met each year since 1997 under a framework known as Asean Plus 3.
It would clearly be in the interests of Australia, New Zealand and India to be included in the inaugural East Asia Summit. They could then have a say in building the new regional architecture from the ground up.
Badawi has spoken of developing a plan towards an East Asia Community that would include in its charter a free trade area, an agreement on monetary and financial co-operation, a transportation and communication network, a declaration of human rights and obligations, and a zone of amity and co-operation.
The latter is significant. India acceded to Asean's Treaty of Amity and Co-operation, known by its initials as TAC, in 2003 at the same time as China. But Australia and New Zealand have not yet followed suit, although Wellington has indicated it would like to do so.
The TAC is a non-aggression pact. It binds members to renounce the use or threat of force except in self-defence and prescribes a process for settling any disputes peacefully.
Before and during the Asean heads of government meetings in Vientiane late last year, Australian Prime Minister John Howard refused to sign the TAC despite being asked to do so by foreign ministers of the group. They want as many of Asean's regional partners as possible to accede, arguing that this will encourage constructive engagement in political and security matters and thus help reinforce regional stability.
Yet Howard, in a joint press conference with Badawi in Canberra last Thursday, again appeared to rule out Australian accession to the TAC. Implying that the 1976 treaty was outmoded, he said: "Given that it was delivered to the region by a mindset that we've moved on from, I didn't think it was appropriate."
In the past, Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer outlined two reservations: that joining the TAC could undermine Australia's obligations as a United States ally, and that it would constrain Canberra from commenting on the internal policies of Asean member states, notably Myanmar. Yet all four of the other Asia-Pacific nations that are active allies of the US - Japan, the Philippines, Thailand and South Korea - have signed the treaty.
And Asean countries have not allowed their accession to muzzle criticism of the military regime in Myanmar. Indeed, momentum is growing within Asean to deprive the regime of its scheduled chairmanship of the organisation next year because of its failure to hasten democratic reforms.
Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, the Philippines and Thailand have publicly expressed concern about repression in Myanmar on the grounds that it affects the interests and standing of Asean. They are worried that Myanmar could hurt the region's relations with the US and the European Union - both major trade and investment partners.
Both have threatened to boycott Asean meetings held in Myanmar if it assumes the rotating annual chairmanship after Malaysia.
On Friday, Downer appeared to give somewhat different grounds for Australia's reservations about the TAC. He told ABC Radio that the treaty was based on the Bandung principles of non-alignment, while Australia was a close ally of the US.
And, secondly, that its High Council dispute resolution system included Asean member states but excluded non-Asean countries that acceded to the treaty.
Downer said he was happy to talk to Asean about the concerns Australia had about the treaty.
He said Australia was an "unashamedly aligned" country that was not part of the TAC movement.
He said his country didn't particularly like "to sign up to treaties that put us in a position of being a second-class member".
However, Australia may yet review its reservations about the TAC and agree to sign before the various Asean summits are held in Malaysia in December.
Prime Minister Helen Clark said New Zealand is studying the TAC with intent to possible accession.
Both Australia and New Zealand should accede to the TAC. It would be a significant symbolic gesture of support for peace and stability in Southeast Asia. And it might help to hasten the evolution of inclusive Asia-Pacific regionalism.
If Australia continues to shy away from signing the treaty, the question is should NZ break ranks with Canberra and do so alone?
It would have to weigh any damage in relations with its key transtasman partner against the anticipated gains in links with Asia. One of these is whether acceding to the TAC would open the door to inclusion in the East Asia Summit with India, leaving Australia as the odd country out.
* Michael Richardson, a former Asia editor of the International Herald Tribune, is a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of South East Asian Studies in Singapore. He is a co-author of Australia-New Zealand & Southeast Asia Relations: An Agenda for Closer Cooperation.
<EM>Michael Richardson:</EM> Why it's right to sign up to Asian non-aggression pact
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