Michael Richardson: Asia and friends seek sense of community

Asia, alone among the regions of the world, lacks a co-operative forum with continental reach. Instead of an umbrella organisation, it has a bewildering array of sub-regional groups that reflect its historic diversity but do not adequately mould the growing forces of economic integration and incipient regional identity.

This could change, beginning today, when the leaders of 10 Southeast Asian countries meet their counterparts from China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand for the first time in what is being called, inaccurately, an East Asia Summit.

Earlier this year, when Asean, the Association of South East Asian Nations, invited the three non-East Asian states - India, Australia and New Zealand - to join the inaugural summit, they defined East Asia not as an exclusive geographical entity but as an inclusive zone that would extend its connections based on substantive relations and interests.

Nonetheless, there remains much for the heads of government to decide this week if they really want to create the framework of an Indo-Pacific community centred on East Asia.

Should Russia be admitted as a member, as Moscow has requested, since two-thirds of Russian territory lies in Asia? Should the European Union be granted observer status, opening the way for the United States to become an observer in future, or even a member if it signs Asean's friendship treaty, as close ally Australia did in Kuala Lumpur on Saturday? Joining the treaty, as New Zealand did earlier this year, is a condition for participating in the East Asia Summit.

Will leaders of the new Indo-Pacific group meet annually, and set up a secretariat, to help give its work momentum and direction? What will the core activities of the group be? India wants the 16 countries to focus on economic integration with the aim of creating the world's biggest free trade area of nearly 3 billion people.

Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi, who is hosting the summit talks, said at the weekend that a study was under way to explore the feasibility of an East Asian Free Trade Area involving Asean, China, Japan and South Korea. "As for the other friends of Asean, like Australia, India and New Zealand, it is only natural to eventually have free trade agreements with them."

Asean, Australia and New Zealand are negotiating a FTA while Asean is talking about a similar accord with India. In the long-term, these deals could be meshed together to form an Indo-Pacific FTA. But there are many barriers to closer economic and political ties. Asean and its Northeast Asian partners - China, Japan and South Korea - will have to decide in practical terms whether to enlarge their East Asia enterprise to encompass new members outside the region.

Enlargement could dilute East Asian goals and weaken the pivotal role of Asean. However, it may be a way to cushion the presently poisonous relations between China and Japan.

Political ties between three of Asia's four largest economies - Japan, China and South Korea - are severely strained and this undermines prospects for cohesion in any regional framework. China's leaders have refused point-blank to meet Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi for bilateral talks.

Still, the East Asia Summit participants were always likely to proceed cautiously towards closer co-operation. An EU-style customs union, single central bank, common currency, and borderless trade and migration are likely to be a long way off in Asia, if not a pipe dream. Instead, the 16 leaders will probably look at ways to strengthen existing pan-regional activities in security and confidence-building, trade, monetary and financial co-operation, and improving transportation and communication links.

Constructing closer Indo-Pacific ties will take time and probably be contentious. The East Asia Summit may turn out to be a hollow shell. But it could also become a major factor in global affairs, in addition to shaping the future of Asia. The stakes are especially high for Australia and New Zealand which need to be part of the giant Asia market and have a hand in shaping the architecture of the region.

If current rates of economic growth continue, East Asia will overtake the US and EU in less than 20 years. However, its ascent will be even quicker with the combined economic weight of India and of Australia-New Zealand, which are already integrated into a virtual single market. The 16 nations in the group represent about half the world's population, have a combined GDP greater than the EU, and a trading volume larger than Nafta, the North American Free Trade Area.

Of course, history seldom moves on predictable lines. Stability and growth in Asia could be derailed by conflict and recession. However, if the energies of the Indo-Pacific area can be harnessed in pragmatic and effective ways, it clearly has enormous potential. A region that is more cohesive, economically and politically, would be a buffer against instability and a magnet for investment and progress.

* The writer, a former Asia editor of the International Herald Tribune, is a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of South East Asian Studies in Singapore.