Labour: Blair warns wavering voters

Labour strategists fear that their lead in the polls could be overturned in the Labour marginals where abstentions among 800,0000 disgruntled voters over the war could hold the key to the result.

Labour's last press conference of the election was held in Finchley, Lady Thatcher's former seat, to emphasise the importance of turn-out today by Labour voters in marginal constituencies.

At Tony Blair's final press conference of the campaign, the Prime Minister warned wavering voters not to cast a protest vote against him over the war, saying: "If people make a protest vote, they could end up with a Conservative government."

After a final hectic day of campaigning, it is understood Mr Blair was planning to hold a secret meeting with some of his most trusted ministers at his constituency home in Sedgefield to plan for the Cabinet reshuffle that will take place tomorrow and priorities for the Queen's Speech setting out the legislative programme.

John Prescott, the Deputy Prime Minister, who played a key role in bringing Mr Blair and Gordon Brown back together for the campaign, gave a clear signal at the press conference that he does not want to move from his Whitehall post at the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister. He jokingly told journalists he wanted to carry on in the job for another ten years.

Mr Brown was also assured by Mr Blair at the outset to the campaign that he would not be moved, in spite of reports that Mr Blair wanted to ditch the Chancellor.

Tory strategists last night said the Labour lead over the Conservatives took off from the moment that Mr Brown was brought back to the heart of the campaign. Yesterday, Alan Milburn, the campaign strategist who was given Mr Brown's election role by Mr Blair, was left sitting in the back row.

Mr Brown was brought in to protect Mr Blair during the campaign, which the Tories tried to turn into a referendum on trust in Mr Blair. The campaign clearly showed that the youthful popularity of Mr Blair that helped Labour win two elections has worn off to the point where it was seen as an electoral liability for a third term.

Mr Blair, who has announced his decision to step down after serving a full term, will be closely watching the size of the majority he gets to see how long he can stay on.

Margaret Beckett, the Environment Secretary, another minister who had been sidelined in the campaign, but who could now survive the reshuffle, personally defended Mr Blair's leadership at the press conference against claims that he had lied over Iraq.

"People are not just electing candidates," she said. "They are electing a Prime Minister. I believe Tony Blair has leadership qualities that Michael Howard lacks. Tony Blair doesn't duck issues."

Labour strategists admitted Mr Howard's low popularity rating with the voters had worked in their favour. "The trust thing has been misrepresented as a vote loser for Labour," said one Labour strategist.

"We had a simple answer, which was to say to Labour voters, who do you trust, Blair or Howard? That is a no-brainer for Labour. Howard has been Labour's secret weapon."

The Tories beat Labour in the early rounds of the campaign, finding Labour slow to react to policy initiatives such as the offer of discounts on council tax.

However, the Tories' plans unravelled, and they were unable to fully exploit the Iraq issue, when Mr Howard said he would have supported regime change in Iraq, even though it was illegal.

The Labour campaign strategy was blown off course by the leaking of the Attorney General's advice to Mr Blair and by the defection of Brian Sedgemore, the veteran Labour MP, to the Liberal Democrats in protest at the war and attacks on civil liberties.

However, backed every step of the way by Mr Brown, Mr Blair kept the focus on the economy in the country.

"Iraq was played up by the John Humphreys of this world but people were voting on the economy and public services," said another Labour insider.

"The attacks on Blair actually succeeded in driving Blair and Brown together. It showed that they may have had their difficulties, but they have never been as bad as Thatcher and Lawson or Thatcher and Howe."

Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, was also put on the front line yesterday, which was seen as a further signal that in spite of speculation, he will also remain in the Cabinet in tomorrow's reshuffle when others get the chop.

- INDEPENDENT