Keith Suter: Katrina sinks Bush's charm offensive

Keith Suter

Among the casualties of Hurricane Katrina is President Bush's rarely publicised "southern strategy". Most Blacks don't vote for Republicans. About 90 per cent of them vote Democrat.

Bush's "southern strategy" has been focused on reversing that fact. In the 2000 presidential election, he got 9 per cent of the black vote, and in 2004 11 per cent. He cannot stand for election again, but the Republican Party needs every vote it can get and the black vote represents a new field of voters.

Bush recognises that there is a new generation of wealthy young blacks. The civil rights era of 40 years ago is just ancient history to them. He thinks that he can attract their votes by changes in taxation favouring the wealthy.

He is also seeking the support of conservative black religious leaders with some of his religious opinions.

Among his other actions has been the appointment of blacks as members of his Government. Condoleezza Rice is the first black female Secretary of State. And Bush was the first serving US President to visit Africa.

He has been the subject of many criticisms, but until Katrina came along he had never been accused of racism.

The "southern strategy" was designed to reverse the tide of history. The Civil War (1861-5), in which more Americans were killed than in any of America's international campaigns, had been fought largely over the issue of black slavery, particularly in the Southern states.

During the post-war Reconstruction period blacks made several gains. But as the 19th century wore on, these were eroded. They were largely excluded from voting and so the Republicans could never make the most of the fact that their liberator - Abraham Lincoln - had been a Republican.

The civil rights movement, which got under way in the late 1950s, resulted in a number of legislative changes under Democrat President Lyndon Johnson. Millions of blacks have now joined the American middle class. There are successful blacks running businesses and universities.

But Johnson's brilliant civil rights record was increasingly overshadowed by the Vietnam War. He decided not to seek re-election in 1968. This ended the Democratic presence in the White House for eight years. Republican Richard Nixon got elected.

The Republicans had always done badly among whites in the southern states because Lincoln had been a Republican. The south traditionally elected white Democrats. But many southern voters, unlike their northern counterparts, were conservative (if not racist) and formed effectively a separate force in politics.

Nixon created a "southern strategy" to reinvent the Republican Party's image in the south and get the conservative white vote.

This was a controversial strategy among northern Republicans, who did not want to be associated with southern racists. They may be conservative, but many supported the civil rights laws adopted in the 1960s.

But Nixon's strategy paid off. He eroded the traditional white support for the Democrats and added to the Republican power base.

Republicans have done very well in most of the presidential elections since 1968. There have been only two breaks in the Republican runs of successes: Jimmy Carter, 1976-80, and Bill Clinton, 1992-2000.

But doing so well among the whites meant that the Democrats solidified their hold over the black vote across the country.

Now President Bush is trying a fresh "southern strategy". He wants to get the black vote off the Democrats - hence his charm offensive.

But now it seems that all this work has been undermined by the delay in helping the poor blacks caught up in the Katrina tragedy. Their treatment has reopened the old suspicions of blacks being second-class citizens.

* Keith Suter is a professional fellow at the Futures Foundation Australia.