Gautaman Bhaskaran: Railway blow to hope and spirit of Tibet

Railway lines fulfil dreams. At least in modern times. But the one about to link central Tibet with China threatens to dash hopes. When passenger trains begin running on this stretch in 2007, hundreds of Han Chinese will emigrate to Tibet.

Tibetans are already in a minority in the cities. This new influx will just swamp them. And this is precisely what Beijing wants: a less gruesome form of ethnic cleansing.

The railway line is merely one of the many threats that the Tibetans face.

Since their spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, escaped to India with about 80,000 followers in 1959 after China put down a rebellion in Tibet, the simple largely pastoral race has been in deep despair.

This agony does not appear to go away or even diminish.

At a recent gathering of Tibetans in Dharamsala in northern India, where the Dalai Lama lives and runs a government in exile, he rues that his people are "facing extinction".

Out of a total of six million Tibetans, 130,000 live outside their land, three-quarters in India. These men and women dream of returning home some day, and they continue to keep alive their traditions, sometimes even their way of daily existence.

But the Dalai Lama, who acts as a catalyst to the Tibetans and their aspirations, will not live forever. He himself says that his death will be a serious setback. It is an understatement. Lobsang Nyandak Zayul, a minister in exile in the Dalai Lama's government, feels that there will be chaos after the leader's death.

This unrest will probably affect China deeply as well. The Dalai Lama no longer seeks independence for Tibet. What he now wants is limited autonomy for his people that will allow them to practise their customs without fear or hindrance.

Analysts aver that Beijing should not let go this opportunity for one very important reason. No leader after the Dalai Lama can ever hope to enjoy the respect and love that the Tibetans have for him.

The spiritual leader's command over and loyalty from his people are enormous. Besides, the Dalai Lama is a true Buddhist who seeks peace, and has until now somehow managed to keep the Tibetans from the path of violence.

Sometimes one does get the impression that the present leadership in Beijing is trying to forge some kind of peace with the Tibetans and the Dalai Lama.

The question now is will the Dalai Lama reincarnate himself as the 15th leader? He says that he will not unless the Tibetans themselves want the institution. Yet, most Tibetans believe that the reincarnation will take place. China knows this too, and has already begun to meddle in this process.

A senior lama is traditionally involved in identifying and tutoring a young Dalai Lama. His is the Panchen Lama. The 10th Panchen Lama died in 1989 and two young men - one recognised by the Dalai Lama and most Tibetans and another by the Chinese - carry the title of the 11th.

The Chinese Panchen has been in jail since 1995 (for his own protection, says China).

The stage, it seems, is all set for drama and intrigue.

Yes, some aver that the 17 Karmapa, Ogyen Trinley (barely 20 years of age) - who belongs to the Black Hat School of Tibetan Buddhism, which in the 17th century lost state power to the Dalai Lamas' Gelugpa School - recognised by the Chinese Government and the present Dalai Lama - may be able to bring peace after the spiritual leader's demise.

Trinley was born in Tibet, but fled to India in 1999 in the hope of freedom.

But the Indian security around him is heavy and he is not allowed to visit his predecessor's seat. In the days to come, both the Dalai Lama and Beijing are bound to get more and more suspicious of the Karmapa's exile.

For a long time, India thought that he was a Chinese spy. Perhaps it still does. And Beijing is uncomfortable with the idea that he is living in India.

* Gautaman Bhaskaran is a journalist based in Madras.