Editorial: Sharon's illness hurts peace

Israel's general election on March 28 was shaping as a triumph for the Prime Minister, Ariel Sharon, and his new Kadima Party. Neither the taint of corruption nor a revitalised Labour Party seemed likely to stop him. A brain haemorrhage almost certainly has, however. Suddenly, the election has been thrown wide open. As has the future of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

The extent of Mr Sharon's influence cannot be underestimated. His leadership of Israel since 2001 has been the culmination of a distinguished Army career and decades as the country's dominant political force.

Even at 77, he retained an instinctive grasp of popular sentiment, as was emphasised late last year when he quit the right-wing Likud Party to form the centrist Kadima.

Mr Sharon's avowed intention was to pursue peace in the Middle East unencumbered by hardline opponents in Likud, who had been angered by the withdrawal from Gaza. That approach struck a chord with Israelis jaded by years of extreme policies and conflict with the Palestinians. Polls suggested Mr Sharon would win a third term with something to spare.

He is Kadima, however. The party depends on his appeal. Without him, the dozen MPs who joined him from Likud carry little clout. The party has no manifesto, and there is no obvious successor.

Mr Sharon's sidelining, therefore, presents Israeli voters with a stark choice. Likud, which polls had suggested would have its representation in the Knesset cut by 12 to 15 seats from the present 40, now has former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as its leader. He had quit Mr Sharon's Cabinet in protest at the pullout from Gaza. Now, he stands to be a beneficiary of his former ally's ill-health. Most of Kadima's supporters came from Likud, and some will surely switch back.

Yet the peace-process chord tapped by Mr Sharon could also entice some to a reinvigorated Labour. The party's new leader, populist trade union official Amir Peretz, provoked the March election, and, indeed, the creation of Kadima, by collapsing the ruling Likud-Labour coalition. He wants to move faster towards shaping Israel's final borders than Mr Sharon, and is prepared to make greater territorial concessions. As part of that process, Labour is considering even a scheme in which the biggest Jewish settlement blocks on the West Bank would be leased back from the Palestinians.

Polling suggested Labour would claim about 25 seats, compared with Kadima's 30 to 33. If Israelis feel secure enough to embrace the risks inherent in Labour's policies, the party could become the dominant political force. If not, minor parties might wield an important influence, and Israel could be headed for another period of chaotic politics.

The collapse of law and order in Gaza and the outcome of Palestinian elections scheduled for this month may enhance that prospect. President Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah Party is expected to stave off the challenge of the militant Hamas group. But Fatah, which is pledged to a negotiated two-state solution with Israel, will no longer wield unfettered power.

Mr Sharon offered an approach that tied progress towards peace and security. It offered the people of Israel hope but not vulnerability. His sidelining is a serious blow to a path that enjoyed widespread support. With the Palestinian world also in turmoil, the prospects for peacemaking this year have dimmed.