Editorial: New ideas needed to help Iraq

Two polls last month suggest that President George W. Bush's job approval rating is at the lowest point since he began his presidency. In part, this can be attributed to rising petrol prices. Mostly, however, it reflects growing disillusionment with events in Iraq, That sentiment can only have deepened over the past week or so, despite the President's attempt to rally Americans to the cause of a "free Iraq" - and now there is further questioning of his leadership to contend with in the wake of Hurricane Katrina (see below).

During that short period, the White House's attempt to secure a draft constitution more amenable to Iraq's dethroned Sunni minority fell largely on deaf ears. More dramatically, a stampede on a Baghdad bridge, which killed about 1000 Shiite pilgrims, brought tensions among Iraq's rival communities to a new peak. A civil war threatened as the long-suffering Shiites blamed Sunni insurgents for provoking the incident.

For the meantime, that conflict has been averted. The Shiites, who comprise 60 per cent of the population, continue to place their faith in the path to a democratic Iraq laid out by the United States. On October 15, there will be another step along that track when a referendum on the draft constitution is held. Frustratingly, this, however, is shaping as a severe obstacle.

The draft constitution bears the exclusive stamp of the Shiites and Kurds, particularly in its enshrining of federalism. To the Sunnis, this threatens Iraq's unity as a state and, consequently, their access to a share of the wealth from the country's oilfields, which lie in Shiite and Kurdish areas. The issue became so intractable that the draft constitution merely deferred consideration for six months, by which time a new assembly is due to have been elected.

This sidestep was regrettable. It said far more about the need for perceived progress than the practicalities of Iraq. Above all, it denied the realities of a referendum process that, quite deliberately, ensures minorities such as the Sunnis are not ignored. The draft constitution will be rejected if it attracts a "no" vote in three or more of the country's 18 provinces. The Sunnis dominate at least four provinces.

This has spurred a flurry of reaction. The Sunnis, who have regarded insurgency as their bargaining chip and potential means of reclaiming power, and who boycotted the elections for a national assembly in February, are now assiduously registering voters. The Americans, having failed to persuade the Kurds and Shiites to make constitutional concessions, are seeking to placate the Sunnis by other means. This has included freeing more than 1000 men from Abu Ghraib prison.

The US has much at stake. Its exit strategy relies on a smooth transition through to the election of a new assembly. If that process is disturbed, so is the planned withdrawal of the 150,000 troops remaining in Iraq. If civil war is to be averted, compromises must be made. The Shiites and Kurds will have to accept that a workable constitution will guarantee the unity of Iraq, even as it provides them with a high degree of autonomy. The Sunnis must, for their part, acknowledge they would not prevail in a sectarian war.