Editorial: Iran needs carrots and sticks

Opinion

Iran's decision to remove United Nations seals from some of its nuclear research plants and resume atomic research is a chilling development. Whatever the soothing noises from Tehran, it can serve only to confirm a determination to build a nuclear bomb. Iran, of all nations, cannot be trusted with such weaponry. As much was reinforced recently when its President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, called for Israel to be "wiped off the map".

The Islamic republic's move ends a two-year deal with Britain, France and Germany to freeze the most dangerous parts of its nuclear programme - uranium enrichment and plutonium separation. Iran claims it wants only to generate nuclear power, and that its research and development will not entail full-scale enrichment, a process that can be used to make material for atomic bombs. The UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, is unconvinced, as are most Western intelligence agencies.

Iran's motives for building a nuclear arsenal are straightforward. A period of conciliatory behaviour was shattered in 2002 when President George W. Bush named it a charter member of his "axis of evil". The subsequent war in Iraq, and Iran's support for groups such as Hamas and Hizbollah, have widened the breach. The unexpected election of President Ahmadinejad was one consequence of the increasing tension and distrust. Now, Tehran seems to have concluded that if it is offside with Washington, it might just as well build nuclear weapons as be suspected of developing them.

The resumption of research has, at least, unified the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. Previous US attempts to apply sanctions were bound to be vetoed by Russia, which was intent on encouraging Tehran to do joint-venture development on Russian soil. This would have ensured that enrichment was for electricity purposes. With that idea sidelined, Russia joined the US, Britain, France and China in warning Iran against a resumption of research, and urging renewed talks.

Now that message has been disregarded, the US will press the Security Council to impose trade restrictions or other punishments for breaches of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Effectively, this is the only course open to it, given its embroilment in Iraq. But that does not mean there is no danger of conflict. A new Israeli leader, keen to establish his credentials and with President Ahmadinejad's venom ringing in his ears, could yet order pre-emptive strikes against the Iranian research plants.

If Iran is to be persuaded to change direction, carrots, as well as sticks, must be used. Iranians, cajoled by their leaders, now see nuclear technology as a matter of national pride. A possible path forward lies in the fragile agreement signed last year under which North Korea, another of President Bush's "rogue states", pledged to stop developing nuclear weapons and rejoin international arms treaties.

This breakthrough came after Pyongyang proclaimed that it possessed nuclear weapons. This forced the US to demonstrate greater flexibility, most notably in recognising the Koreans' right to a civilian nuclear energy programme and in affirming that it had no intention of attacking the North.

Iran is not yet quite so dire a threat. But it could be soon. A concerted international effort must be made before it is too late. An outcast and nuclear-armed Iran would make the Middle East, and the world, a far more dangerous place.