According to the Washington Post's electoral vote tracker - an amazing tool that marries RealClearPolitics polling averages in swing states with the electoral map - if the election were held today, Hillary Clinton would win 341 electoral votes to Donald Trump's 197.
Those totals reflect the fact that Trump's always-narrow path to 270 electoral votes has become a footpath - at best - over the past two weeks or so, dating back to the first presidential debate on September 27.
Trump has been battered over that time by bad reviews of his debate showings as well as the revelations of lewd sexual talk in a 2005 hot-mic tape. His poll numbers have taken a commensurate hit - both nationally and in swing states. That hit is reflected in our weekly update of the Fix electoral map.
Pennsylvania, which we moved into the "toss-up" category last week, immediately moves back to "lean Democratic". Of the five polls conducted in the state after the first debate, Clinton had led by four, eight, 12, nine and 10 points; her average lead, according to RealClearPolitics, is now 8.6 points.
That move is hugely significant for Trump's chances. Taking Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes out of the "toss-up" category means he would literally need to run the table of the states remaining in that category - and then some - to win.
