Editorial: War in Ukraine turns France election into a global issue

French President Emmanuel Macron. Photo / AP

EDITORIAL:

A French presidential election is always significant but timing makes Emmanuel Macron's bid for a second term something that matters well beyond the country's borders.

Up until recently the French President looked to be cruising comfortably to an easy victory.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine, uncertainty over Europe's future security and energy needs, economic sanctions, price inflation for basic goods and fuel have scrambled the screen.

Recent polls showed a tightening race between the centrist and his far-right anti-immigration challenger Marine Le Pen.

In the end Macron's margin was better than forecast.

In Monday's first round, Macron won with 27.84 per cent of the vote to Le Pen's 23.15 per cent. Only far-leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon came close with 21.95 per cent. He told supporters in his concession speech: "You should not vote for Madame Le Pen". The overall turnout was 74 per cent.

Macron and Le Pen will face off in the election's second round on April 25 NZT. Macron beat Le Pen to win the presidency with 66 per cent of the vote in 2017.

Macron is the senior leader in western Europe with Germany's recent change of chancellor and Britain's exit from the European Union.

France is now the only nuclear power in the EU and is the bloc's second-largest economy. It has a UN Security Council veto and from New Zealand's point of view is a South Pacific neighbour with its territory in this region.

While Macron has been focused on trying to convince Russian President Vladimir Putin to withdraw his military, Le Pen has been concentrating on cost-of-living issues. Australia's Prime Minister will be testing the waters of these testing times with an election on May 21.

A crucial factor is that Macron has been the only leading candidate in the election who supports a major role for Nato and has long argued for greater defence co-operation in the EU.

After the upheaval from the pandemic in the past couple of years, the Ukraine war is now upending security, politics and economics in Europe.

Nato has been resuscitated and more countries may join, defence budgets are being boosted. Poland's importance has been underlined as Ukraine's neighbour and entry point for weapons, having a border with Russia, and being the main host of millions of war refugees.

European Commission president Ukraine Ursula von der Leyen signalled at the weekend that Ukraine will be able to begin its membership process for the European Union within weeks.

France has a key role in shaping these and future developments.

France's defence spending has risen by €7 billion under Macron. Should Russia soon withdraw from Ukraine, Macron would probably seek to maintain European unity on defence. It would seem likely that the EU would help Ukraine rebuild as Western weapons continued to flow to Kyiv.

Macron's focus on Ukraine over domestic concerns may have turned off some voters. But in the past supporters of other parties have registered their personal preference in the first round and then voted tactically keep the far right out.

The two-round system always gives voters the chance to think again when the options are clear.