Editorial: US party conventions depict a tale of two Americas

Protesters outside the White House as fireworks end the Republican National Convention on Friday. Photo / AP

For all the words written about facts, numbers and policy, elections often come down more to emotion and gut instinct than reason.

Are you better off than before? Can you trust the people in charge? Would the new team be better or worse?

Americans have been offered two distinct paths towards the November election after the party conventions of the past two weeks.

The key question both main United States parties are primarily asking is: Are you safe?

The US is nearing six million coronavirus cases and 182,000 deaths. Case numbers have been falling lately but it is hard to predict what the situation will be in November. With the pandemic comes job, home, health, and food insecurity. Millions of jobs have been recovered but the unemployment rate is still 10.2 per cent. Parents are concerned about their children in schools.

Polls show the pandemic is the issue of most importance to voters. A Morning Consult poll on Saturday showed a slight uptick in approval for Donald Trump's handling of the virus from 36 per cent in late July to 39 per cent now.

The Democratic case is that Trump and Mike Pence politicised their handling of the US outbreak and made it worse than it could have been. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris charge that Trump's character and record show he is not up to the job.

Republicans blame China for the virus, highlight early travel bans, point to efforts working with states, and a push for medical remedies. Health experts and critics contend that protective equipment was initially insufficient, travel bans still let thousands of people through, states were forced to scramble for supplies, there was never a co-ordinated national plan, and testing has never reached the necessary levels.

At the Republican Convention, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow last week suggested the pandemic was over: "It was awful. Health and economic impacts were tragic... But presidential leadership came swiftly and effectively... to successfully fight the Covid virus."

The convention instead focused on law and order, with Trump and Pence seizing on incidents of rioting that have followed some peaceful racial justice protests, to warn that voters "won't be safe in Biden's America".

That argument involves a central contortion: Such violence is actually happening in Trump's America. The President claims that Democratic-run cities have been too soft on protesters - putting the onus on local authorities. But during the 2016 campaign Trump vowed that "the violence that afflicts our nation will soon come to an end… safety will be restored".

On Friday Trump said: "Your vote will decide whether we protect law-abiding Americans, or whether we give free rein to violent anarchists."

The safety pitch may appeal to some moderate Republicans and Independents in swing states who drifted away from Trump. He has to convince them to return. Former Republican congressman Charlie Dent, who backs Biden, said of such voters: "A lot of these people understand why the protests are occurring and the need for reforms... But looting, vandalism, burning of cars... is abhorrent to [them]."

Biden has supported the right to protest, acknowledged racial inequality and condemned police brutality. He has also spoken out against rioting and said he does not want to "defund'" the police. The Democrats want to keep the election focused on the coronavirus and jobs, and just how safe people feel now in Trump's America.

Fears about safety will be key to the election outcome.