Editorial: Theresa May reheats dinner but it may go in bin

Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May. Photo / AP

EDITORIAL:

There have been crucial weeks before in Britain's long goodbye to the European Union. This week could be the most significant.

The Brexit deadline of March 29 is so close that Britain's political leadership will have to make some decisions — even if it's just deciding to delay decisions.

On Wednesday NZT, MPs will be offered a reheated meal they have tasted before. Prime Minister Theresa May's unloved, EU-approved Brexit withdrawal deal was rejected by 230 votes in January. Now May is serving the same platter and another defeat is expected — unless Brexiteers calculate it's all they can realistically get.

The media speculation is that, should a defeat be narrow, it could be put to yet another vote next week. That would be a reverse twist on the old Oliver Twist line. Please, sir, you DO want some more.

MPs have been promised a say this Thursday on whether the no-deal option will be taken off the table and on Friday whether Brexit will be delayed — most likely to June. May could pre-empt that — and avoid another meltdown — by announcing she will seek an extension from Brussels.

At the weekend EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier brought back an old offering of his own: His original plan of a Northern Ireland-only backstop. He suggested Britain could leave the customs union next year if Northern Ireland stayed to ensure no hard border on the Irish island. The customs border would be in the Irish Sea.

Weighing against this proposal is the fact that the Government is propped up by Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party which doesn't want Northern Ireland to be treated differently to other parts of the UK.

An Ipsos poll in the Irish Times last week showed that voters in Northern Ireland would vote to stay in the EU in a second referendum and prefer customs checks on goods between the British mainland and Ulster rather than checks at the Irish border. If Northern Ireland were to stay in the customs union, it could boom economically as the only UK area with a toe in both camps.

It's a moot point now but should the different nations in the UK have been able to have different Brexit deals according to how they voted?

In the 2016 referendum, Scotland (62 per cent) and Northern Ireland (55.8 per cent) voted to stay. England (53.3 per cent) and Wales (52.5 per cent) voted to leave. One unknown is Brexit's longer-term impact on the UK. Could it eventually bring about Scottish independence and/or Irish reunification?

There are more immediate questions.

Will a delay be granted, and a no-deal averted?

Should May's deal fail again by a huge margin, will she show a flexibility she has avoided to consider a new approach?

And if May is close to achieving a Brexit no one likes, is the clock ticking on her leadership?

One thing's for sure, the withdrawal agreement is only the start. Should the UK get over the Brexit line, years of negotiations lie ahead.