Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders has hit the lead ahead of Super Tuesday with at least 57 delegates to Joe Biden's 51. AP Photo / Steve Helber
Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders has hit the lead ahead of Super Tuesday with at least 57 delegates to Joe Biden's 51. AP Photo / Steve Helber
Opinion
EDITORIAL
A comeback victory by former US Vice-President Joe Biden in the South Carolina Democratic primary has highlighted the calculations and stakes on the line this week.
It's now almost certain that in November, the US election will be won by either President Donald Trump, Senator Bernie Sanders or Biden.
In total, 1991 delegates are needed to win the nomination. Thirty-five per cent of all delegates, more than 1300, will be decided in contests in Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia.
After a month of early contests, Sanders leads the Democratic field with 60 delegates to Biden's 53.
A tally of 26 was not enough to stop centrist former mayor Pete Buttigieg seeing the writing on the wall and ending his campaign yesterday. Senator Elizabeth Warren with eight and Senator Amy Klobuchar with seven are under pressure to do likewise.
It may simply be too late for Biden to overcome Sanders' advantage. The progressive senator is well ahead in the biggest Super Tuesday state, California, and polls show him leading in several others.
Biden had an overwhelming victory in South Carolina, backed by 60 per cent of African American primary voters in the state. The turnout exceeded its record set in 2008 and Biden's 28 per cent margin was of the same magnitude as Barack Obama's then.
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden's win in Carolina was a do-or-die moment in his campaign. AP Photo / Gerald Herbert
The result confirmed the problems several contenders have in appealing to black voters, a large and essential Democratic bloc. Even billionaire Mike Bloomberg, who wasn't on the ballot and has had two bad debate performances, was cut down to size with only a 26 per cent favourability rating in the exit poll results.
What the Biden win clarified was the trajectory of the race. Sanders is the frontrunner, having eclipsed his ideological rival, Warren. Moderate Democrats now have a stark decision: Back Biden or see Sanders win the nomination.
What we don't know is what kind of a bounce Biden will get from the win and what impact the remaining moderates staying in the race could have in kneecapping his chances.
Aside from Buttigieg, billionaire Tom Steyer has also dropped out. But any further slicing of the field is likely to happen after the Super Tuesday results are in.
President Donald Trump has been hit by criticism in recent days over the initial response to the global coronavirus crisis. AP Photo / Evan Vucci
There are different pressures at work here. Do Klobuchar and Warren want to risk struggling in their home states? Do they want to split the respective moderate and progressive votes? Does Bloomberg want to hand Sanders the nomination when he entered as an alternative to Biden?
For Buttigieg, getting out before Super Tuesday was the smart choice. He cannot now be accused of being a spoiler for Biden or outstaying his welcome with the party. He has years of a political career ahead of him and will be in line for a cabinet post should Biden triumph.
Polls taken last week are of limited use as a guide after the jolt Biden has received after his bad results in Iowa and New Hampshire and second placing in Nevada.
On Sunday in his victory speech Biden looked sharp and confident after months of underwhelming public appearances. He also had a better than normal last debate and a viral moment last week when he talked about his faith at a CNN event.
For now at least, he's the new Comeback Kid, about to plunge into a week that will largely decide his fate.
