Editorial: Russia Ukraine war - A lot riding on next military and political steps

A man removes a destroyed curtain inside a school damaged among other residential buildings in Kyiv, Ukraine. Russian forces struck the edges of the capital and in Lviv. Photo / AP

EDITORIAL:

As the war in Ukraine extends into a fourth week, there's a thuggish relentlessness about Russia's approach.

Ukrainian cities have been heavily pounded with artillery and missiles from a distance as the Russian military avoid getting drawn into street combat.

Shuddering misery has rained down on hospitals, schools, apartments, and buildings where civilians have been sheltering, such as a theatre blasted by a Russian air strike in Mariupol.

In the words of British Chief of Defence Intelligence Lieutenant General Jim Hockenhull, this is Russia's "strategy of attrition" - what he termed a "reckless and indiscriminate use of firepower" which would likely result in more civilian deaths.

The most remote targets have been areas around Lviv near the western border with Poland. Overall there's been little advance in the amount of land the Russian forces occupy - it still looks like a buffer strip in the east and south of Ukraine.

Michael Kofman, an expert on the Russian military, told AP that Russian forces appear to be fighting to surround Kyiv, to encircle Ukrainian fighters in the east, and to reach the port of Odessa.

About 180,000 people have been able to get out of battle zones through humanitarian corridors.

As United States President Joe Biden heads to Europe this week for meetings with other leaders and a Nato summit in Brussels, the question of air superiority hangs over the state of the conflict.

A Nato-imposed no-fly zone has been ruled out but Western countries hope extra supplies of weaponry such as drones and shoulder-fired missiles will allow the Ukrainians to erode Russia's advantage.

The Times reported that a Ukrainian drone unit aided by Elon Musk's Starlink has been destroying Russian tanks and trucks in static convoys during night attacks.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last week asked the US Congress to "protect our skies". For Nato countries that increasingly means sending more air defence systems on top of previous deliveries.

Both US and European Union officials were reported as saying that China was considering military support for Russia.

In a video summit on Saturday, Biden warned China's President Xi Jinping of consequences should Beijing provide military or economic help to Moscow. Xi described Western sanctions on Russia as "sweeping and indiscriminate".

Xi added that "if further escalated, they could trigger serious crises in global economy and trade, finance, energy, food and industrial and supply chains" - a clear reference to the risks of any Western extension of sanctions targeting Russia to China.

He also said the "Ukraine crisis is not something we want to see".

Next to the chief combatants, China is the country most under pressure. A lot rides on what stance it takes on this conflict.

China's ties to Russia - now essentially a pariah in the world under President Vladimir Putin - run counter to Beijing's deep economic links with Western countries and its aim to be a global leader. It is walking a tightrope of offering some support to Moscow without getting clearly offside with the West. It abstained in the major United Nations vote on Russia's invasion.

The US is urging Xi to use his influence with Putin in a positive way. The leaders of France and Germany continued to press Putin for a ceasefire.

Upcoming military and political developments will be crucial.