Editorial: EU divorce costs rising for Britain

EDITORIAL

As far as marriages go, it lasted longer than many. Britain, the traditionally Slightly Difficult Nation of Europe, is striking out on its own after 47 years with the European Union.

As with any divorce, this one already has been and will continue to be costly.

In an estimate last month, Bloomberg Economics calculated that Brexit had already cost the British economy £130 billion ($265.5b) since the 2016 referendum and £70b would be added this year.

And — whatever the longstanding irritations in staying together — for now comfortable economic security and certainty has been sacrificed for a lot of unknowns.

For instance, Brexit has created serious future political uncertainty for Britain and Ireland. A YouGov poll found Scottish voters, by a 51 to 49 per cent margin, now supported independence for the nation. In the 2016 referendum, Scotland strongly voted to remain in the EU.

In an ever-connected world, large trading blocs dominate. The EU is the world biggest. There's safety and clout in numbers.

EU countries make up eight of Britain's top 10 trading partners. Germany is its number one, but Bloomberg reported that Britain had slid in importance to its partner. German exports to Britain had fallen by 4 per cent last year to November on the previous year.

While Brexit has been presented as Britain's chance to seal trade deals of its own, two of its key targets for new trading relationships — the US and China — have been in a tariff war. US President Donald Trump has shown a willingness to use threats of tariffs even against European allies.

Unlike New Zealand and Australia, Britain is notably allowing China's Huawei to have a role in its 5G wireless networks.

Negotiating on its own makes Britain more vulnerable to political pressures. At the least, there will be new trade-offs and realities to consider.

Britain's withdrawal at the weekend is merely the start of a drawn-out new dawn.

A new trading relationship between Britain and the EU will be negotiated during an 11-month transition period. The talks start next month. Britain will have to decide by July whether it will need an extension.

At least until December, Britain will remain in the EU single market and customs union. Essentially Britain is still operating under EU rules without any longer having any say in them.

Britain's exit marks the first time the EU has lost a member and the country was one of the bloc's three largest economies.

Remainers were unable to articulate the benefits of remaining in the EU in a way that captured imaginations as Leavers spun a tale of taking back control in a simple shift of sovereignty.

Whenever someone tries to sell you how great something could be, it's always wise to consider that things can also always be worse.

Britons will now gradually find out how it pans out.