At the weekend a milestone was reached in the investigation into the United States 2016 election. US prosecutors for the first time directly tied President Donald Trump to a crime committed by a lieutenant in a case involving hush money payments to two women who had alleged affairs with Trump.
During legal filings on campaign finance violations committed by former personal lawyer Michael Cohen, the documents say they were "in coordination with and at the direction of" Trump, referred to as "Individual-1". Trump has not been charged with a crime. Candidates are required to report any payments made to influence the election under campaign finance law. Trump's campaign didn't do so.
It's arguable whether public knowledge of the alleged affairs and cover-up would have doomed Trump. The Access Hollywood tape and claims of wrongdoing from other women did not derail Trump's campaign. Federal prosecutors in the Southern District of New York are investigating the campaign violations, alongside the wider Russia probe. Overall, the Russia probe shows that various officials in the Trump campaign responded enthusiastically behind the scenes to contacts from Russia, going back to November 2015.
What does this mean going forward? The US Justice Department has a policy that a sitting president cannot be indicted. But the alternative question of impeachment is also complicated.
The new Democratic-controlled House of Representatives from January will be able to pursue impeachment. But it's unlikely the party would be able to secure enough Republican support in the Senate for removal. Would it be smarter politically, instead, to hold hearings into Trump's dealings without going all out on impeachment?
