An elderly man walks past a car shop that was destroyed after a Russian attack in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine. Photo / AP
An elderly man walks past a car shop that was destroyed after a Russian attack in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine. Photo / AP
EDITORIAL
It can be easy to misjudge the importance of events as they happen, but a crucial shift is clearly under way in the Ukraine war.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's carefully crafted image of a strategically masterful strongman has never taken such a hammering as it is now. With theblasting of a Russian-built road and rail bridge in Crimea at the weekend, after other setbacks, Putin's leadership is being put under rare and serious pressure.
It's something that Russia's inevitable retaliation - which came in the form of lethal cruise missile, rocket and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities - can't patch over.
But the strikes may signal a new phase of pain for Ukraine with regular aerial bombardment on civilian areas, even as the Russian military struggles in the east and south of Ukraine. As Ukrainian cities were being struck on Wednesday, Kyiv reported it had reclaimed five settlements in the Kherson region.
The strikes do show Russia has various options to make a brutal point, short of using nuclear weapons, and can inflict death, fear and damage on the capital and other cities.
It has also quickly changed the focus from the bridge attack and Crimea to Russia taking intimidatory action directly at Kyiv.
Russia has also exposed the fact that Ukraine needs more air defence systems from the West. It's a large country which makes it hard to defend against missile barrages and some air defence systems are being used on the front lines.
The bottom line is the war has become heavily artillery and territory-based and Russia - in the face of Ukrainian counteroffensives - hasn't been able to hold on to large areas of land it initially grabbed.
Putin's attempt to rewrite reality with his four illegal annexations of eastern Ukrainian territories two weeks ago was immediately trampled under Kyiv's advances in Kharkiv and Kherson. Ukrainian forces have continued to attack Russian troops in Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Reports assess that Russian troops have retreated hundreds of square kilometres in recent weeks.
Flame and smoke rise from the Crimean Bridge connecting the Russian mainland and Crimean Peninsula over the Kerch Strait. Russian authorities say a truck bomb caused the partial collapse. Photo / AP
The attack on the bridge blew another hole in Putin's reputation as a fearsome, invulnerable leader and clever strategist.
Russian officials blamed the bridge attack on a truck bomb and said Russian citizens were involved. Putin said it was a terror attack carried out by Ukrainian special forces. Having to publicly admit to major security breaches - if only to try to justify the air attacks on Ukrainian civilians that followed this week - would seem humiliating.
Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. The 19km and US$3.6 billion bridge was opened by Putin, who drove a truck across it, four years later. It's both a pet project invested with Putin's authority and a symbol of Russia's occupation of the peninsula.
More practically it has been used to maintain Russia's military supplies for the war. The bridge attack was successful despite it being heavily guarded.
If the attack that occurred a day after Putin's 70th birthday originated in Ukraine, it would be another example of Kyiv's wide weapons reach and bullishness over the way the conflict is going.
It would seem Putin's nuclear threats have been ignored, because going on the offensive and striking such a major target in Crimea would obviously draw a nasty response.
Initially, Russian missile strikes on Monday in Zaporizhzhia collapsed a large apartment building. That was followed by the rush-hour missile strikes into Tuesday morning NZT, including in central Kyiv for the first time in months. Then more strikes on Wednesday. Apartments and a playground have been hit and power was knocked out across the country.
From a military focus, Ukraine obviously has a strategy to slow and disrupt Russia's military supply lines and troop reinforcements. The Russian military's reliance on railway links has also been targeted in eastern Ukraine, as have bridges over the Dnipro River.
Putin appears likely to keep up the aerial attack and targeting of Ukraine's energy supplies, even as Russia's vulnerabilities on the ground front line are further exposed.
