Editorial: US midterm elections - Trump-sized headache for Republicans emerges

Former US president Donald Trump is expected to run for the presidency again. Photo / The New York Times

EDITORIAL:

The Republican Party has emerged from an underwhelming Midterm election with a Trump-sized headache.

Former Republican president Donald Trump and his movement have been a major drag on the GOP’s performance - for the third United States election in a row.

Trump is a unifying figure for his opponents, highlighting trends in his party that many other voters are wary of. Extreme candidates he endorsed lost seats that a generic Republican may have won.

As they had in the presidential election of 2020 and the midterms of 2018, a basic band of core Democrats, Republican moderates and Trump-spooked independents reformed for these Midterms, even in political conditions that appeared to be in the GOP’s favour.

Yet it is likely Trump will, as early as next week, announce a bid to return to the White House.

Unless the party can find its way out of the populist Trump trap and appeal more to moderate and independent voters, it will remain on the back foot.

Democrats defied Midterm history, polling which amplified Republican chances, low presidential ratings, and economic headwinds to keep the expected red wave to a slight swell.

Even with the economy being the major issue in both pre-election polling and the exit poll, voters’ lack of trust in the Republicans over extremism remains a huge roadblock. Abortion rights appears to have been the issue that personalised general concerns over America’s cultural and political battles.

President Joe Biden’s Democrats are slightly favoured to again hold the Senate majority and the Republicans will likely pick up the House of Representatives by a very tight margin, less than forecast.

That would allow the GOP to try to stall some of Biden’s agenda and launch inquiries. But management of the chamber would be difficult, and Democrats would have opportunities for deal-making if they keep the Senate.

Republicans won a majority of voters pessimistic about the economy. Democrats dominated among voters who want abortion rights. Incumbent politicians of both parties generally did well.

From a New Zealand point of view, with an upcoming election next year, the results underlined the potential shortcomings of polling, with some voters hard to reach. And perhaps issues of trust and familiarity can be under-rated next to more obvious economic concerns.

The Midterm results already have commentators speculating on the US presidential contest in 2024. Should it become a Biden-Trump rematch of two, currently unpopular, elderly men, the incumbent might hold the better cards.

In a polarised, two-party system, independent voters are critical to success. Biden won independents by 13 points in 2020 but Trump has always been about firing up his party base, which currently has a ceiling of about 36 per cent.

According to exit poll data, independents – 31 per cent of the electorate – voted for Democratic candidates in House races by 49 to 47 per cent over Republicans – a major change from recent midterms. Traditionally, independents vote against the incumbent party in midterms by double digits.

Several Trump-backed candidates and 2020 election deniers lost - including ones Democrats had tactically supported in primaries to try to ensure they would be weaker Midterm opponents. In three crucial Senate races, independents supported the Democrat by 20 per cent (Pennsylvania), 16 per cent (Arizona), and 11 per cent (Georgia).

Democrat Josh Shapiro become Pennsylvania’s governor by defeating a Trump-backed far-right candidate, Doug Mastriano. Pennsylvania is the state that pushed Biden over the 270 Electoral College votes to win the presidency.

The governor appoints the person who certifies (or not) the state’s elections and Mastriano had tried to reject Pennsylvania’s certification of the 2020 election, citing false claims of fraud.

Democratic governors were also returned in other important swing states that voted for Biden: Michigan and Wisconsin. This will be a relief to Democrats after the 2020 controversy.

The 2024 presidential map has been simplified with other battleground states of Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina, solidly in Republican hands.

Governor Ron DeSantis’ 19-point victory in Florida suggests he’s headed for an ugly battle with Trump in the next Republican presidential primary.

DeSantis is himself a Trumpist populist who mines the culture wars and the former president sees him as a threat. DeSantis was, unusually for a Republican, able to win in the urban area of Miami and attract a majority of Latino voters. Potentially, he might have appeal to independents.

The Democrats have their own dilemmas. The economy needs to improve and the party will likely have a tougher challenge in Congress. There will also be internal factional tension over approaches, policies, and types of candidates for 2024.

The party clearly needs leadership renewal but, for now, the results strengthen Biden’s case to run again. That could change if the economic outlook worsens next year.